Trader consensus implies a 95.5% probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) current assessment showing no tropical cyclones or areas of interest, with zero development expected in the next seven days and routine outlooks resuming May 15. Climatology underscores this confidence: since 1851, fewer than 30 pre-June 1 named storms have formed, with hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Category 1 or higher) exceedingly rare due to insufficient main development region sea surface temperatures (SSTs around 26–27°C currently) and elevated vertical wind shear. Colorado State University's April outlook cites an emerging El Niño, which boosts shear and forecasts below-normal activity. Realistic shifts would require an anomalous tropical disturbance amid sudden shear collapse and rapid SST spikes above 28°C, though model consensus deems this improbable.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill a hurricane form by May 31?
Will a hurricane form by May 31?
$42,721 Vol.
$42,721 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$42,721 Vol.
$42,721 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus implies a 95.5% probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) current assessment showing no tropical cyclones or areas of interest, with zero development expected in the next seven days and routine outlooks resuming May 15. Climatology underscores this confidence: since 1851, fewer than 30 pre-June 1 named storms have formed, with hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Category 1 or higher) exceedingly rare due to insufficient main development region sea surface temperatures (SSTs around 26–27°C currently) and elevated vertical wind shear. Colorado State University's April outlook cites an emerging El Niño, which boosts shear and forecasts below-normal activity. Realistic shifts would require an anomalous tropical disturbance amid sudden shear collapse and rapid SST spikes above 28°C, though model consensus deems this improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
Volume
$42,721Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Trader consensus implies a 95.5% probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) current assessment showing no tropical cyclones or areas of interest, with zero development expected in the next seven days and routine outlooks resuming May 15. Climatology underscores this confidence: since 1851, fewer than 30 pre-June 1 named storms have formed, with hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Category 1 or higher) exceedingly rare due to insufficient main development region sea surface temperatures (SSTs around 26–27°C currently) and elevated vertical wind shear. Colorado State University's April outlook cites an emerging El Niño, which boosts shear and forecasts below-normal activity. Realistic shifts would require an anomalous tropical disturbance amid sudden shear collapse and rapid SST spikes above 28°C, though model consensus deems this improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA designates any storm in the Atlantic a hurricane between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$42,721Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 95.5% probability of no Atlantic hurricane forming by May 31, driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) current assessment showing no tropical cyclones or areas of interest, with zero development expected in the next seven days and routine outlooks resuming May 15. Climatology underscores this confidence: since 1851, fewer than 30 pre-June 1 named storms have formed, with hurricanes (Saffir-Simpson Category 1 or higher) exceedingly rare due to insufficient main development region sea surface temperatures (SSTs around 26–27°C currently) and elevated vertical wind shear. Colorado State University's April outlook cites an emerging El Niño, which boosts shear and forecasts below-normal activity. Realistic shifts would require an anomalous tropical disturbance amid sudden shear collapse and rapid SST spikes above 28°C, though model consensus deems this improbable.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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