Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability that Tesla will not open orders for the Robovan autonomous van before 2027, driven by the company's intense focus on Cybercab robotaxi production ramping up at Giga Texas since April 2026, with initial units already rolling off lines and unsupervised Full Self-Driving deployments expanding to cities like Dallas and Phoenix. The Robovan, unveiled as a 20-passenger concept in October 2024, lacks prototypes, regulatory filings, or timeline commitments, positioning it as a lower-priority extension dependent on robotaxi success amid Tesla's Optimus robot and Semi scaling efforts. Traders anticipate clarity from the Q1 2026 earnings call on April 22, but historical delays in autonomous vehicle rollouts reinforce skepticism for near-term orders.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$31,149 Vol.
$31,149 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$31,149 Vol.
$31,149 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability that Tesla will not open orders for the Robovan autonomous van before 2027, driven by the company's intense focus on Cybercab robotaxi production ramping up at Giga Texas since April 2026, with initial units already rolling off lines and unsupervised Full Self-Driving deployments expanding to cities like Dallas and Phoenix. The Robovan, unveiled as a 20-passenger concept in October 2024, lacks prototypes, regulatory filings, or timeline commitments, positioning it as a lower-priority extension dependent on robotaxi success amid Tesla's Optimus robot and Semi scaling efforts. Traders anticipate clarity from the Q1 2026 earnings call on April 22, but historical delays in autonomous vehicle rollouts reinforce skepticism for near-term orders.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ET
Volume
$31,149Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability that Tesla will not open orders for the Robovan autonomous van before 2027, driven by the company's intense focus on Cybercab robotaxi production ramping up at Giga Texas since April 2026, with initial units already rolling off lines and unsupervised Full Self-Driving deployments expanding to cities like Dallas and Phoenix. The Robovan, unveiled as a 20-passenger concept in October 2024, lacks prototypes, regulatory filings, or timeline commitments, positioning it as a lower-priority extension dependent on robotaxi success amid Tesla's Optimus robot and Semi scaling efforts. Traders anticipate clarity from the Q1 2026 earnings call on April 22, but historical delays in autonomous vehicle rollouts reinforce skepticism for near-term orders.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly opens either preorders or full customer orders for any van-like autonomous electric vehicle on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any such vehicle, regardless of product name, will qualify as long as either preorders or full customer orders are publicly open in at least one region.
Free signup or waitlist systems that do not constitute a public preorder or full customer order will not qualify.
The qualifying vehicle must represent a distinct product line; larger or modified variants of other Tesla models, such as robotaxi configurations with expanded seating, will not count.
Announcements that either preorders or full customer orders will open in the future do not qualify on their own; the preordering or ordering window must actually open within this market's timeframe to count.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$31,149Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability that Tesla will not open orders for the Robovan autonomous van before 2027, driven by the company's intense focus on Cybercab robotaxi production ramping up at Giga Texas since April 2026, with initial units already rolling off lines and unsupervised Full Self-Driving deployments expanding to cities like Dallas and Phoenix. The Robovan, unveiled as a 20-passenger concept in October 2024, lacks prototypes, regulatory filings, or timeline commitments, positioning it as a lower-priority extension dependent on robotaxi success amid Tesla's Optimus robot and Semi scaling efforts. Traders anticipate clarity from the Q1 2026 earnings call on April 22, but historical delays in autonomous vehicle rollouts reinforce skepticism for near-term orders.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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