Tesla’s decision to prioritize Cybercab production exclusively for its internal robotaxi fleet through 2026 underpins the market’s 82.5% “No” odds on retail sales at or below $30,000. Pilot output began in February at Gigafactory Texas, with continuous manufacturing and hundreds of units spotted by July, yet all vehicles support supervised or geofenced service testing rather than individual ownership. Regulatory requirements for selling steering-wheel-less vehicles to consumers, combined with ongoing Full Self-Driving validation and an explicit company focus on fleet scaling ahead of personal sales, have kept the retail channel closed. Key near-term catalysts include Austin service expansion, unsupervised FSD milestones, and any shift in manufacturing allocation toward third-party buyers.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui18% peluang
$48,441 Vol.
$48,441 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
18% peluang
$48,441 Vol.
$48,441 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s decision to prioritize Cybercab production exclusively for its internal robotaxi fleet through 2026 underpins the market’s 82.5% “No” odds on retail sales at or below $30,000. Pilot output began in February at Gigafactory Texas, with continuous manufacturing and hundreds of units spotted by July, yet all vehicles support supervised or geofenced service testing rather than individual ownership. Regulatory requirements for selling steering-wheel-less vehicles to consumers, combined with ongoing Full Self-Driving validation and an explicit company focus on fleet scaling ahead of personal sales, have kept the retail channel closed. Key near-term catalysts include Austin service expansion, unsupervised FSD milestones, and any shift in manufacturing allocation toward third-party buyers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$48,441Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s decision to prioritize Cybercab production exclusively for its internal robotaxi fleet through 2026 underpins the market’s 82.5% “No” odds on retail sales at or below $30,000. Pilot output began in February at Gigafactory Texas, with continuous manufacturing and hundreds of units spotted by July, yet all vehicles support supervised or geofenced service testing rather than individual ownership. Regulatory requirements for selling steering-wheel-less vehicles to consumers, combined with ongoing Full Self-Driving validation and an explicit company focus on fleet scaling ahead of personal sales, have kept the retail channel closed. Key near-term catalysts include Austin service expansion, unsupervised FSD milestones, and any shift in manufacturing allocation toward third-party buyers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$48,441Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla’s decision to prioritize Cybercab production exclusively for its internal robotaxi fleet through 2026 underpins the market’s 82.5% “No” odds on retail sales at or below $30,000. Pilot output began in February at Gigafactory Texas, with continuous manufacturing and hundreds of units spotted by July, yet all vehicles support supervised or geofenced service testing rather than individual ownership. Regulatory requirements for selling steering-wheel-less vehicles to consumers, combined with ongoing Full Self-Driving validation and an explicit company focus on fleet scaling ahead of personal sales, have kept the retail channel closed. Key near-term catalysts include Austin service expansion, unsupervised FSD milestones, and any shift in manufacturing allocation toward third-party buyers.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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