US-Iran tensions have featured limited US and Israeli strikes on IRGC targets and missile facilities in July 2026, alongside Iranian proxy activity and ballistic missile efforts, but no ground offensive aimed at territorial control. As of early August, President Trump postponed planned strikes after mediators outlined a potential framework addressing the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues, shifting focus toward diplomacy despite Iran's public denial of an immediate deal and rejection of direct talks under current conditions. Ongoing negotiations, high operational costs of a broader campaign, and active de-escalation channels have sustained trader consensus around an 79.5% probability that no US invasion occurs by the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAkankah AS menginvasi Iran sebelum 2027?
Ya
$54,782,196 Vol.
$54,782,196 Vol.
Ya
$54,782,196 Vol.
$54,782,196 Vol.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran tensions have featured limited US and Israeli strikes on IRGC targets and missile facilities in July 2026, alongside Iranian proxy activity and ballistic missile efforts, but no ground offensive aimed at territorial control. As of early August, President Trump postponed planned strikes after mediators outlined a potential framework addressing the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear issues, shifting focus toward diplomacy despite Iran's public denial of an immediate deal and rejection of direct talks under current conditions. Ongoing negotiations, high operational costs of a broader campaign, and active de-escalation channels have sustained trader consensus around an 79.5% probability that no US invasion occurs by the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui



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