US and Israeli airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury in February 2026 targeted Iranian leadership, missile systems, and infrastructure, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompting a brief ceasefire before renewed US strikes on coastal and maritime sites in July 2026 in response to attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. These actions reflect a pattern of precision strikes and retaliation rather than large-scale ground operations or regime change via invasion. Ongoing diplomatic efforts, including memoranda on nuclear issues and de-escalation, combined with the substantial casualties, economic disruption, and regional spillover from earlier fighting, have shaped trader consensus that a full US invasion remains unlikely before the end of 2026. Scheduled negotiations and monitoring of Iranian responses continue to influence assessments.