Trader consensus implies an 83% probability that no additional EU country will restrict U.S. military aircraft overflights or base access by April 30, reflecting the absence of new official announcements since Austria's April 2 decision to deny permissions under its neutrality policy amid the U.S.-Iran conflict. Earlier restrictions by Spain, which barred airspace and bases like Rota and Morón; Italy, denying Sigonella landings; and France, limiting overflights for arms shipments to Israel—all in late March—prompted the market but have not expanded, as Germany declined direct involvement without imposing flight bans and Poland rejected missile requests separately. With two weeks remaining, no scheduled diplomatic summits or NATO discussions signal further action, stabilizing odds despite alliance tensions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$24,088 Vol.
$24,088 Vol.
30 apr 2026
Sì
$24,088 Vol.
$24,088 Vol.
30 apr 2026
Austria announced this month that U.S. military planes involved in Operation Epic Fury could not use its airspace, joining other EU countries in restricting U.S. military aircraft operations (see: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5815053-austria-defies-trump-war/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any EU member state that has not yet applied such a restriction officially announces that U.S. military aircraft are not permitted to use its airspace or land in its territory, or announces that U.S. military aircraft are generally not allowed to use certain military bases or airports within its jurisdiction, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A restriction applying only to a subset of U.S. military aircraft (e.g. only aircraft involved in Operation Epic Fury) will qualify.
A qualifying restriction must be a standing policy; isolated instances of access denial will not count. For example: Italy’s isolated refusal to allow U.S. military aircraft to use Sigonella airbase (see: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/italy-refuses-us-aircraft-use-sicily-base-middle-east-operations-source-says-2026-03-31/) would not count.
An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that another EU country has implemented a qualifying restriction on U.S. military aircraft will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. Mere statements from U.S. officials, however, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant countries; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus implies an 83% probability that no additional EU country will restrict U.S. military aircraft overflights or base access by April 30, reflecting the absence of new official announcements since Austria's April 2 decision to deny permissions under its neutrality policy amid the U.S.-Iran conflict. Earlier restrictions by Spain, which barred airspace and bases like Rota and Morón; Italy, denying Sigonella landings; and France, limiting overflights for arms shipments to Israel—all in late March—prompted the market but have not expanded, as Germany declined direct involvement without imposing flight bans and Poland rejected missile requests separately. With two weeks remaining, no scheduled diplomatic summits or NATO discussions signal further action, stabilizing odds despite alliance tensions.
Austria announced this month that U.S. military planes involved in Operation Epic Fury could not use its airspace, joining other EU countries in restricting U.S. military aircraft operations (see: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5815053-austria-defies-trump-war/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any EU member state that has not yet applied such a restriction officially announces that U.S. military aircraft are not permitted to use its airspace or land in its territory, or announces that U.S. military aircraft are generally not allowed to use certain military bases or airports within its jurisdiction, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A restriction applying only to a subset of U.S. military aircraft (e.g. only aircraft involved in Operation Epic Fury) will qualify.
A qualifying restriction must be a standing policy; isolated instances of access denial will not count. For example: Italy’s isolated refusal to allow U.S. military aircraft to use Sigonella airbase (see: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/italy-refuses-us-aircraft-use-sicily-base-middle-east-operations-source-says-2026-03-31/) would not count.
An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that another EU country has implemented a qualifying restriction on U.S. military aircraft will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. Mere statements from U.S. officials, however, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant countries; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any EU member state that has not yet applied such a restriction officially announces that U.S. military aircraft are not permitted to use its airspace or land in its territory, or announces that U.S. military aircraft are generally not allowed to use certain military bases or airports within its jurisdiction, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A restriction applying only to a subset of U.S. military aircraft (e.g. only aircraft involved in Operation Epic Fury) will qualify.
A qualifying restriction must be a standing policy; isolated instances of access denial will not count. For example: Italy’s isolated refusal to allow U.S. military aircraft to use Sigonella airbase (see: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/italy-refuses-us-aircraft-use-sicily-base-middle-east-operations-source-says-2026-03-31/) would not count.
An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that another EU country has implemented a qualifying restriction on U.S. military aircraft will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. Mere statements from U.S. officials, however, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant countries; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 6, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$24,088Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 6, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Austria announced this month that U.S. military planes involved in Operation Epic Fury could not use its airspace, joining other EU countries in restricting U.S. military aircraft operations (see: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5815053-austria-defies-trump-war/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any EU member state that has not yet applied such a restriction officially announces that U.S. military aircraft are not permitted to use its airspace or land in its territory, or announces that U.S. military aircraft are generally not allowed to use certain military bases or airports within its jurisdiction, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A restriction applying only to a subset of U.S. military aircraft (e.g. only aircraft involved in Operation Epic Fury) will qualify.
A qualifying restriction must be a standing policy; isolated instances of access denial will not count. For example: Italy’s isolated refusal to allow U.S. military aircraft to use Sigonella airbase (see: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/italy-refuses-us-aircraft-use-sicily-base-middle-east-operations-source-says-2026-03-31/) would not count.
An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that another EU country has implemented a qualifying restriction on U.S. military aircraft will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. Mere statements from U.S. officials, however, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant countries; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus implies an 83% probability that no additional EU country will restrict U.S. military aircraft overflights or base access by April 30, reflecting the absence of new official announcements since Austria's April 2 decision to deny permissions under its neutrality policy amid the U.S.-Iran conflict. Earlier restrictions by Spain, which barred airspace and bases like Rota and Morón; Italy, denying Sigonella landings; and France, limiting overflights for arms shipments to Israel—all in late March—prompted the market but have not expanded, as Germany declined direct involvement without imposing flight bans and Poland rejected missile requests separately. With two weeks remaining, no scheduled diplomatic summits or NATO discussions signal further action, stabilizing odds despite alliance tensions.
Austria announced this month that U.S. military planes involved in Operation Epic Fury could not use its airspace, joining other EU countries in restricting U.S. military aircraft operations (see: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5815053-austria-defies-trump-war/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any EU member state that has not yet applied such a restriction officially announces that U.S. military aircraft are not permitted to use its airspace or land in its territory, or announces that U.S. military aircraft are generally not allowed to use certain military bases or airports within its jurisdiction, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A restriction applying only to a subset of U.S. military aircraft (e.g. only aircraft involved in Operation Epic Fury) will qualify.
A qualifying restriction must be a standing policy; isolated instances of access denial will not count. For example: Italy’s isolated refusal to allow U.S. military aircraft to use Sigonella airbase (see: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/italy-refuses-us-aircraft-use-sicily-base-middle-east-operations-source-says-2026-03-31/) would not count.
An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that another EU country has implemented a qualifying restriction on U.S. military aircraft will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. Mere statements from U.S. officials, however, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant countries; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any EU member state that has not yet applied such a restriction officially announces that U.S. military aircraft are not permitted to use its airspace or land in its territory, or announces that U.S. military aircraft are generally not allowed to use certain military bases or airports within its jurisdiction, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A restriction applying only to a subset of U.S. military aircraft (e.g. only aircraft involved in Operation Epic Fury) will qualify.
A qualifying restriction must be a standing policy; isolated instances of access denial will not count. For example: Italy’s isolated refusal to allow U.S. military aircraft to use Sigonella airbase (see: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/italy-refuses-us-aircraft-use-sicily-base-middle-east-operations-source-says-2026-03-31/) would not count.
An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that another EU country has implemented a qualifying restriction on U.S. military aircraft will also suffice for a “Yes” resolution. Mere statements from U.S. officials, however, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant countries; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$24,088Data di fine
30 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 6, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies an 83% probability that no additional EU country will restrict U.S. military aircraft overflights or base access by April 30, reflecting the absence of new official announcements since Austria's April 2 decision to deny permissions under its neutrality policy amid the U.S.-Iran conflict. Earlier restrictions by Spain, which barred airspace and bases like Rota and Morón; Italy, denying Sigonella landings; and France, limiting overflights for arms shipments to Israel—all in late March—prompted the market but have not expanded, as Germany declined direct involvement without imposing flight bans and Poland rejected missile requests separately. With two weeks remaining, no scheduled diplomatic summits or NATO discussions signal further action, stabilizing odds despite alliance tensions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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