Apple's decision to pause full Vision Pro successor development and redirect resources toward smart glasses has anchored the 96% trader consensus against a pre-2027 release. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported in mid-2026 that the category sits "on ice" pending major advances in weight, slimness, and cost, with the canceled Vision Air project and an incoming CEO shift under John Ternus accelerating the pivot; the original model received only an M5 chip refresh in October 2025. This timeline aligns with historical Apple product cycles where engineering hurdles routinely push hardware beyond initial targets. While a surprise breakthrough or accelerated supply-chain progress could theoretically compress the schedule, current verified developments leave little room for a 2026 launch.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoApple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?
Apple Vision Pro 2 released before 2027?
4% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
4% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's decision to pause full Vision Pro successor development and redirect resources toward smart glasses has anchored the 96% trader consensus against a pre-2027 release. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported in mid-2026 that the category sits "on ice" pending major advances in weight, slimness, and cost, with the canceled Vision Air project and an incoming CEO shift under John Ternus accelerating the pivot; the original model received only an M5 chip refresh in October 2025. This timeline aligns with historical Apple product cycles where engineering hurdles routinely push hardware beyond initial targets. While a surprise breakthrough or accelerated supply-chain progress could theoretically compress the schedule, current verified developments leave little room for a 2026 launch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$6,272Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's decision to pause full Vision Pro successor development and redirect resources toward smart glasses has anchored the 96% trader consensus against a pre-2027 release. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported in mid-2026 that the category sits "on ice" pending major advances in weight, slimness, and cost, with the canceled Vision Air project and an incoming CEO shift under John Ternus accelerating the pivot; the original model received only an M5 chip refresh in October 2025. This timeline aligns with historical Apple product cycles where engineering hurdles routinely push hardware beyond initial targets. While a surprise breakthrough or accelerated supply-chain progress could theoretically compress the schedule, current verified developments leave little room for a 2026 launch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,272Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Apple's decision to pause full Vision Pro successor development and redirect resources toward smart glasses has anchored the 96% trader consensus against a pre-2027 release. Bloomberg's Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported in mid-2026 that the category sits "on ice" pending major advances in weight, slimness, and cost, with the canceled Vision Air project and an incoming CEO shift under John Ternus accelerating the pivot; the original model received only an M5 chip refresh in October 2025. This timeline aligns with historical Apple product cycles where engineering hurdles routinely push hardware beyond initial targets. While a surprise breakthrough or accelerated supply-chain progress could theoretically compress the schedule, current verified developments leave little room for a 2026 launch.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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