Spain's status as the world No. 2 in FIFA rankings and reigning European champions underpins trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability for topping Group H, bolstered by a dominant 3-0 friendly win over Serbia on March 27 and clean injury reports featuring stars like Rodri, Lamine Yamal, and Álvaro Morata in peak training form. Uruguay holds steady at 14.5% as a formidable contender with Marcelo Bielsa's high-pressing 4-3-3, Darwin Núñez's qualifier-leading goals, and a resilient 1-1 draw against England, positioning them for second via expected wins over Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde despite a tough finale against Spain. Saudi Arabia's 2.8% and Cape Verde's 1.1% reflect weaker qualifier ELO ratings, heavy friendly losses (0-4 to Iraq, 2-4 to Chile), and debutant underdog status, though Roberto Mancini's set-piece focus and Cape Verde's counter-punch threat offer slim upset paths in this group of death.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSpagna 82%
Uruguay 16%
Arabia Saudita 2.8%
Capo Verde 1.1%
$163,738 Vol.
$163,738 Vol.
Spagna
82%
Uruguay
16%
Arabia Saudita
3%
Capo Verde
1%
Spagna 82%
Uruguay 16%
Arabia Saudita 2.8%
Capo Verde 1.1%
$163,738 Vol.
$163,738 Vol.
Spagna
82%
Uruguay
16%
Arabia Saudita
3%
Capo Verde
1%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 5, 2025, 7:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain's status as the world No. 2 in FIFA rankings and reigning European champions underpins trader consensus at 81.5% implied probability for topping Group H, bolstered by a dominant 3-0 friendly win over Serbia on March 27 and clean injury reports featuring stars like Rodri, Lamine Yamal, and Álvaro Morata in peak training form. Uruguay holds steady at 14.5% as a formidable contender with Marcelo Bielsa's high-pressing 4-3-3, Darwin Núñez's qualifier-leading goals, and a resilient 1-1 draw against England, positioning them for second via expected wins over Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde despite a tough finale against Spain. Saudi Arabia's 2.8% and Cape Verde's 1.1% reflect weaker qualifier ELO ratings, heavy friendly losses (0-4 to Iraq, 2-4 to Chile), and debutant underdog status, though Roberto Mancini's set-piece focus and Cape Verde's counter-punch threat offer slim upset paths in this group of death.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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