Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering in forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global ensembles like GFS and ECMWF, projecting Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 18 near 31°C under partly cloudy skies at Baiyun International Airport, the market's resolution station. Recent days saw actual highs of 29–31°C amid variable cloudiness and light showers, building trader caution as a forecasted heavy rain on April 17 could suppress heating or lead to rebound warmth via subsidence under subtropical high pressure. Differing model runs diverge by 1–2°C due to uncertainties in sea breeze timing, urban heat island effects, and convective activity; new CMA bulletins and 12-hour ECMWF updates expected today could sharpen the 30–32°C spread dominating implied probabilities above 70% combined.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Guangzhou on April 18?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on April 18?
31°C 26%
32°C 26%
30°C 20%
29°C 20%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 apr 2026
28°C or below
10%
29°C
20%
30°C
20%
31°C
26%
32°C
26%
33°C
12%
34°C
9%
35°C
8%
36°C
3%
37°C
1%
38°C or higher
1%
31°C 26%
32°C 26%
30°C 20%
29°C 20%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 apr 2026
28°C or below
$66 Vol.
10%
29°C
$0 Vol.
20%
30°C
$0 Vol.
20%
31°C
$0 Vol.
26%
32°C
$0 Vol.
26%
33°C
$0 Vol.
12%
34°C
$0 Vol.
9%
35°C
$59 Vol.
8%
36°C
$99 Vol.
3%
37°C
$209 Vol.
1%
38°C or higher
$144 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering in forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global ensembles like GFS and ECMWF, projecting Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 18 near 31°C under partly cloudy skies at Baiyun International Airport, the market's resolution station. Recent days saw actual highs of 29–31°C amid variable cloudiness and light showers, building trader caution as a forecasted heavy rain on April 17 could suppress heating or lead to rebound warmth via subsidence under subtropical high pressure. Differing model runs diverge by 1–2°C due to uncertainties in sea breeze timing, urban heat island effects, and convective activity; new CMA bulletins and 12-hour ECMWF updates expected today could sharpen the 30–32°C spread dominating implied probabilities above 70% combined.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Apr 16, 2026, 2:06 AM ET
Volume
$578Data di fine
18 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 16, 2026, 2:06 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering in forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global ensembles like GFS and ECMWF, projecting Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 18 near 31°C under partly cloudy skies at Baiyun International Airport, the market's resolution station. Recent days saw actual highs of 29–31°C amid variable cloudiness and light showers, building trader caution as a forecasted heavy rain on April 17 could suppress heating or lead to rebound warmth via subsidence under subtropical high pressure. Differing model runs diverge by 1–2°C due to uncertainties in sea breeze timing, urban heat island effects, and convective activity; new CMA bulletins and 12-hour ECMWF updates expected today could sharpen the 30–32°C spread dominating implied probabilities above 70% combined.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$578Data di fine
18 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 16, 2026, 2:06 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering in forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and global ensembles like GFS and ECMWF, projecting Guangzhou's highest temperature on April 18 near 31°C under partly cloudy skies at Baiyun International Airport, the market's resolution station. Recent days saw actual highs of 29–31°C amid variable cloudiness and light showers, building trader caution as a forecasted heavy rain on April 17 could suppress heating or lead to rebound warmth via subsidence under subtropical high pressure. Differing model runs diverge by 1–2°C due to uncertainties in sea breeze timing, urban heat island effects, and convective activity; new CMA bulletins and 12-hour ECMWF updates expected today could sharpen the 30–32°C spread dominating implied probabilities above 70% combined.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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