Recent forecasts from meteorological models and the Guangzhou observatory point to a daily maximum near 34–35°C on June 22 under typical early-summer subtropical monsoon conditions, with light southerly winds, moderate humidity near 75–85%, and variable cloud cover or scattered showers that limit full solar heating. These factors explain the tightly bunched market probabilities across 34–37°C, as even modest increases in afternoon convection or thicker cloud decks could suppress the peak by 1–2°C while clearer breaks might allow brief spikes toward 36–37°C. Historical June climatology, with average highs of 31–33°C and rare excursions above 36°C, further anchors trader focus on this narrow range rather than extremes, pending the next model runs and observational updates through the weekend.