Trader consensus has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 32°C high in Guangzhou on May 12, driven by confirmed observational data from the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport station— the market's official resolution source under China Meteorological Administration protocols—recording a peak of 32°C during early afternoon amid persistent cloud cover and 70-80% humidity that sharply limited solar insolation and convective heating. This aligns with updated ECMWF and local forecast models projecting a cap at 32-33°C following a week-long cool spell with prior highs of 27-31°C, below May climatological averages of 29-30°C. Diurnal cooling has set in with evening readings dropping to 30°C under overcast skies, making further spikes unlikely; realistic challenges include brief clearing allowing a 1°C surge before sunset, though current atmospheric stability and declining solar angle render this improbable, with final CMA data expected post-midnight.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Guangzhou on May 12?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on May 12?
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$38,335 Vol.
$38,335 Vol.
12 mag 2026
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$38,335 Vol.
$38,335 Vol.
12 mag 2026
26°C or below
$959 Vol.
No
27°C
$885 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,007 Vol.
No
29°C
$2,019 Vol.
No
30°C
$2,043 Vol.
No
31°C
$4,954 Vol.
No
32°C
$6,862 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$3,525 Vol.
No
34°C
$3,363 Vol.
No
35°C
$6,837 Vol.
No
36°C or higher
$4,880 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 32°C high in Guangzhou on May 12, driven by confirmed observational data from the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport station— the market's official resolution source under China Meteorological Administration protocols—recording a peak of 32°C during early afternoon amid persistent cloud cover and 70-80% humidity that sharply limited solar insolation and convective heating. This aligns with updated ECMWF and local forecast models projecting a cap at 32-33°C following a week-long cool spell with prior highs of 27-31°C, below May climatological averages of 29-30°C. Diurnal cooling has set in with evening readings dropping to 30°C under overcast skies, making further spikes unlikely; realistic challenges include brief clearing allowing a 1°C surge before sunset, though current atmospheric stability and declining solar angle render this improbable, with final CMA data expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 10, 2026, 12:25 AM ET
Volume
$38,335Data di fine
12 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 10, 2026, 12:25 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 32°C high in Guangzhou on May 12, driven by confirmed observational data from the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport station— the market's official resolution source under China Meteorological Administration protocols—recording a peak of 32°C during early afternoon amid persistent cloud cover and 70-80% humidity that sharply limited solar insolation and convective heating. This aligns with updated ECMWF and local forecast models projecting a cap at 32-33°C following a week-long cool spell with prior highs of 27-31°C, below May climatological averages of 29-30°C. Diurnal cooling has set in with evening readings dropping to 30°C under overcast skies, making further spikes unlikely; realistic challenges include brief clearing allowing a 1°C surge before sunset, though current atmospheric stability and declining solar angle render this improbable, with final CMA data expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$38,335Data di fine
12 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 10, 2026, 12:25 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus has locked in a near-certain 100% implied probability for a 32°C high in Guangzhou on May 12, driven by confirmed observational data from the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport station— the market's official resolution source under China Meteorological Administration protocols—recording a peak of 32°C during early afternoon amid persistent cloud cover and 70-80% humidity that sharply limited solar insolation and convective heating. This aligns with updated ECMWF and local forecast models projecting a cap at 32-33°C following a week-long cool spell with prior highs of 27-31°C, below May climatological averages of 29-30°C. Diurnal cooling has set in with evening readings dropping to 30°C under overcast skies, making further spikes unlikely; realistic challenges include brief clearing allowing a 1°C surge before sunset, though current atmospheric stability and declining solar angle render this improbable, with final CMA data expected post-midnight.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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