Hong Kong Observatory's official hourly surface observations confirm the highest temperature on May 1, 2026, peaked at 26°C at the Observatory station, with readings of 26°C at noon, 1 p.m., and 4 p.m., aligning precisely with pre-event forecasts of 22–26°C amid mainly cloudy skies, easterly winds force 4–5, and isolated showers. This observational data from the authoritative monitoring body—representing trader consensus backed by real capital—explains the 100% market-implied probability, consistent with early May climatological norms where maximums typically range 25–28°C under similar subtropical high-pressure influences. Scenarios challenging this would require a rare official data revision, such as a delayed higher automated station report exceeding 26°C, though current bulletins show no such indication.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 1?
26°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$394,575 Vol.
$394,575 Vol.
1 mag 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$394,575 Vol.
$394,575 Vol.
1 mag 2026
19°C or below
$5,363 Vol.
No
20°C
$3,304 Vol.
No
21°C
$5,056 Vol.
No
22°C
$6,052 Vol.
No
23°C
$15,635 Vol.
No
24°C
$24,465 Vol.
No
25°C
$33,167 Vol.
No
26°C
$92,132 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$107,145 Vol.
No
28°C
$51,272 Vol.
No
29°C or higher
$50,983 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's official hourly surface observations confirm the highest temperature on May 1, 2026, peaked at 26°C at the Observatory station, with readings of 26°C at noon, 1 p.m., and 4 p.m., aligning precisely with pre-event forecasts of 22–26°C amid mainly cloudy skies, easterly winds force 4–5, and isolated showers. This observational data from the authoritative monitoring body—representing trader consensus backed by real capital—explains the 100% market-implied probability, consistent with early May climatological norms where maximums typically range 25–28°C under similar subtropical high-pressure influences. Scenarios challenging this would require a rare official data revision, such as a delayed higher automated station report exceeding 26°C, though current bulletins show no such indication.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$394,575Data di fine
1 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Hong Kong Observatory's official hourly surface observations confirm the highest temperature on May 1, 2026, peaked at 26°C at the Observatory station, with readings of 26°C at noon, 1 p.m., and 4 p.m., aligning precisely with pre-event forecasts of 22–26°C amid mainly cloudy skies, easterly winds force 4–5, and isolated showers. This observational data from the authoritative monitoring body—representing trader consensus backed by real capital—explains the 100% market-implied probability, consistent with early May climatological norms where maximums typically range 25–28°C under similar subtropical high-pressure influences. Scenarios challenging this would require a rare official data revision, such as a delayed higher automated station report exceeding 26°C, though current bulletins show no such indication.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$394,575Data di fine
1 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 29, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Hong Kong Observatory's official hourly surface observations confirm the highest temperature on May 1, 2026, peaked at 26°C at the Observatory station, with readings of 26°C at noon, 1 p.m., and 4 p.m., aligning precisely with pre-event forecasts of 22–26°C amid mainly cloudy skies, easterly winds force 4–5, and isolated showers. This observational data from the authoritative monitoring body—representing trader consensus backed by real capital—explains the 100% market-implied probability, consistent with early May climatological norms where maximums typically range 25–28°C under similar subtropical high-pressure influences. Scenarios challenging this would require a rare official data revision, such as a delayed higher automated station report exceeding 26°C, though current bulletins show no such indication.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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