Latest forecasts from AEMET and international models such as ECMWF show Madrid temperatures peaking near 38–40°C on June 23–24 amid a strong high-pressure ridge, then moderating sharply on June 25 as Atlantic air and a gentle southwesterly flow arrive. This pattern shift supports a most likely daily maximum of 31–33°C, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around those bins. Ensemble spreads remain modest because the synoptic evolution is now within the 48-hour window where high-resolution runs converge, though small timing differences in the frontal passage could still shift the peak by 1°C. Official guidance currently centers on 31–32°C, with limited upside risk from delayed cooling or localized urban heating.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Madrid on June 25?
Highest temperature in Madrid on June 25?
32°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$126,300 Vol.
$126,300 Vol.
25 giu 2026
29°C or below
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$126,300 Vol.
$126,300 Vol.
25 giu 2026
29°C or below
$14,789 Vol.
No
30°C
$32,374 Vol.
No
31°C
$10,867 Vol.
No
32°C
$20,278 Vol.
Yes
33°C
$10,184 Vol.
No
34°C
$12,251 Vol.
No
35°C
$12,137 Vol.
No
36°C
$10,007 Vol.
No
37°C
$1,109 Vol.
No
38°C
$906 Vol.
No
39°C or higher
$1,398 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecasts from AEMET and international models such as ECMWF show Madrid temperatures peaking near 38–40°C on June 23–24 amid a strong high-pressure ridge, then moderating sharply on June 25 as Atlantic air and a gentle southwesterly flow arrive. This pattern shift supports a most likely daily maximum of 31–33°C, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around those bins. Ensemble spreads remain modest because the synoptic evolution is now within the 48-hour window where high-resolution runs converge, though small timing differences in the frontal passage could still shift the peak by 1°C. Official guidance currently centers on 31–32°C, with limited upside risk from delayed cooling or localized urban heating.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jun 23, 2026, 1:05 AM ET
Volume
$126,300Data di fine
25 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 23, 2026, 1:05 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecasts from AEMET and international models such as ECMWF show Madrid temperatures peaking near 38–40°C on June 23–24 amid a strong high-pressure ridge, then moderating sharply on June 25 as Atlantic air and a gentle southwesterly flow arrive. This pattern shift supports a most likely daily maximum of 31–33°C, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around those bins. Ensemble spreads remain modest because the synoptic evolution is now within the 48-hour window where high-resolution runs converge, though small timing differences in the frontal passage could still shift the peak by 1°C. Official guidance currently centers on 31–32°C, with limited upside risk from delayed cooling or localized urban heating.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$126,300Data di fine
25 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 23, 2026, 1:05 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Latest forecasts from AEMET and international models such as ECMWF show Madrid temperatures peaking near 38–40°C on June 23–24 amid a strong high-pressure ridge, then moderating sharply on June 25 as Atlantic air and a gentle southwesterly flow arrive. This pattern shift supports a most likely daily maximum of 31–33°C, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around those bins. Ensemble spreads remain modest because the synoptic evolution is now within the 48-hour window where high-resolution runs converge, though small timing differences in the frontal passage could still shift the peak by 1°C. Official guidance currently centers on 31–32°C, with limited upside risk from delayed cooling or localized urban heating.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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