Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 10°C in Moscow on April 18, backed by real-time observational data from NOAA at Vnukovo International Airport—the market's official resolution source—which recorded a midday peak of 10°C under overcast skies and light precipitation. This positioning stems from a sharp cold snap triggered by an influx of Arctic air over European Russia, following unseasonably warm highs near 16°C on April 16, as confirmed by Russian Hydrometeorological Center updates. Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS anticipated subdued warming due to persistent cloud cover and northerly winds, aligning with historical April climatology where daily maxima rarely exceed forecasts amid such synoptic patterns. With sunset approaching and minimal diurnal heating potential remaining, only an improbable sudden clearing and solar surge could challenge this, though official hourly reports through evening will finalize the record.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Moscow on April 18?
Highest temperature in Moscow on April 18?
10°C 100.0%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$83,389 Vol.
$83,389 Vol.
18 apr 2026
6°C or below
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
Yes
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C or higher
No
10°C 100.0%
6°C or below <1%
7°C <1%
8°C <1%
$83,389 Vol.
$83,389 Vol.
18 apr 2026
6°C or below
$7,089 Vol.
No
7°C
$6,025 Vol.
No
8°C
$7,761 Vol.
No
9°C
$14,953 Vol.
No
10°C
$17,718 Vol.
Yes
11°C
$7,621 Vol.
No
12°C
$7,228 Vol.
No
13°C
$5,936 Vol.
No
14°C
$3,396 Vol.
No
15°C
$3,033 Vol.
No
16°C or higher
$2,629 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 10°C in Moscow on April 18, backed by real-time observational data from NOAA at Vnukovo International Airport—the market's official resolution source—which recorded a midday peak of 10°C under overcast skies and light precipitation. This positioning stems from a sharp cold snap triggered by an influx of Arctic air over European Russia, following unseasonably warm highs near 16°C on April 16, as confirmed by Russian Hydrometeorological Center updates. Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS anticipated subdued warming due to persistent cloud cover and northerly winds, aligning with historical April climatology where daily maxima rarely exceed forecasts amid such synoptic patterns. With sunset approaching and minimal diurnal heating potential remaining, only an improbable sudden clearing and solar surge could challenge this, though official hourly reports through evening will finalize the record.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Apr 16, 2026, 1:48 AM ET
Volume
$83,389Data di fine
18 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 16, 2026, 1:48 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 10°C in Moscow on April 18, backed by real-time observational data from NOAA at Vnukovo International Airport—the market's official resolution source—which recorded a midday peak of 10°C under overcast skies and light precipitation. This positioning stems from a sharp cold snap triggered by an influx of Arctic air over European Russia, following unseasonably warm highs near 16°C on April 16, as confirmed by Russian Hydrometeorological Center updates. Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS anticipated subdued warming due to persistent cloud cover and northerly winds, aligning with historical April climatology where daily maxima rarely exceed forecasts amid such synoptic patterns. With sunset approaching and minimal diurnal heating potential remaining, only an improbable sudden clearing and solar surge could challenge this, though official hourly reports through evening will finalize the record.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$83,389Data di fine
18 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 16, 2026, 1:48 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 10°C in Moscow on April 18, backed by real-time observational data from NOAA at Vnukovo International Airport—the market's official resolution source—which recorded a midday peak of 10°C under overcast skies and light precipitation. This positioning stems from a sharp cold snap triggered by an influx of Arctic air over European Russia, following unseasonably warm highs near 16°C on April 16, as confirmed by Russian Hydrometeorological Center updates. Model consensus from ECMWF and GFS anticipated subdued warming due to persistent cloud cover and northerly winds, aligning with historical April climatology where daily maxima rarely exceed forecasts amid such synoptic patterns. With sunset approaching and minimal diurnal heating potential remaining, only an improbable sudden clearing and solar surge could challenge this, though official hourly reports through evening will finalize the record.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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