**Cloud cover and scattered showers expected on July 2 are the main factors tempering trader expectations for Tokyo’s daily maximum.** Official JMA guidance highlights cloudy conditions with frequent showers, which limit solar heating and cap temperatures below the seasonal average of roughly 29–30°C. Ensemble model spreads and slight differences in shower timing or intensity create the tight clustering around 23–25°C, as even modest increases in cloud thickness or earlier rain onset can shave 2–4°C off the peak. Above-normal summer temperatures projected by JMA provide a baseline warm bias, yet the immediate synoptic pattern favors moderation. Updated model runs and JMA briefings over the next 48 hours will refine the exact high and likely drive the largest shifts in market-implied probabilities.