Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as the highest temperature in Warsaw today at 100% implied probability, driven by the latest forecast ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), which converge on a midday peak of 17-18°C amid northerly winds capping warming potential. Official IMGW synoptic guidance specifies maxima around 15-18°C in central Poland, aligning with current observations of morning lows near 7°C, variable cloud cover, and moderate insolation under a cool upper-air pattern. This positions well above April's climatological average high of 13°C. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear skies enhancing solar heating to 19°C+, though model agreement and persistent breeze make this unlikely; final resolution awaits official Warsaw station data by midnight.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 18?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 18?
18°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$58,039 Vol.
$58,039 Vol.
18 apr 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
10°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
$58,039 Vol.
$58,039 Vol.
18 apr 2026
10°C or below
$4,425 Vol.
No
11°C
$2,611 Vol.
No
12°C
$1,610 Vol.
No
13°C
$2,363 Vol.
No
14°C
$2,661 Vol.
No
15°C
$3,060 Vol.
No
16°C
$5,327 Vol.
No
17°C
$5,607 Vol.
No
18°C
$10,160 Vol.
Yes
19°C
$11,567 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$8,648 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as the highest temperature in Warsaw today at 100% implied probability, driven by the latest forecast ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), which converge on a midday peak of 17-18°C amid northerly winds capping warming potential. Official IMGW synoptic guidance specifies maxima around 15-18°C in central Poland, aligning with current observations of morning lows near 7°C, variable cloud cover, and moderate insolation under a cool upper-air pattern. This positions well above April's climatological average high of 13°C. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear skies enhancing solar heating to 19°C+, though model agreement and persistent breeze make this unlikely; final resolution awaits official Warsaw station data by midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$58,039Data di fine
18 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as the highest temperature in Warsaw today at 100% implied probability, driven by the latest forecast ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), which converge on a midday peak of 17-18°C amid northerly winds capping warming potential. Official IMGW synoptic guidance specifies maxima around 15-18°C in central Poland, aligning with current observations of morning lows near 7°C, variable cloud cover, and moderate insolation under a cool upper-air pattern. This positions well above April's climatological average high of 13°C. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear skies enhancing solar heating to 19°C+, though model agreement and persistent breeze make this unlikely; final resolution awaits official Warsaw station data by midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$58,039Data di fine
18 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as the highest temperature in Warsaw today at 100% implied probability, driven by the latest forecast ensembles from ECMWF, GFS, and Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), which converge on a midday peak of 17-18°C amid northerly winds capping warming potential. Official IMGW synoptic guidance specifies maxima around 15-18°C in central Poland, aligning with current observations of morning lows near 7°C, variable cloud cover, and moderate insolation under a cool upper-air pattern. This positions well above April's climatological average high of 13°C. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear skies enhancing solar heating to 19°C+, though model agreement and persistent breeze make this unlikely; final resolution awaits official Warsaw station data by midnight.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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