Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, corroborated by IMGW updates, project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 18 clustering around 17-18°C under a developing high-pressure ridge bringing sunnier skies and above-average spring warmth, driving trader consensus toward these outcomes at 28.5-30.5% implied probabilities. The tight race reflects model spread from variable cloud cover and southerly flow strength, with 19°C (19%) viable if clearer conditions enhance insolation, while 16°C (13.5%) accounts for potential overcast persistence. Climatological mid-April highs average 14°C, but recent mild trends—today's 15°C—support warmer bias. New 12z model runs expected within hours could refine resolution near Warsaw's official measurement station.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Warsaw on April 18?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on April 18?
18°C 31%
17°C 29%
19°C 19%
16°C 17%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 apr 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
2%
15°C
11%
16°C
15%
17°C
29%
18°C
31%
19°C
19%
20°C or higher
11%
18°C 31%
17°C 29%
19°C 19%
16°C 17%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 apr 2026
10°C or below
$1,379 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$995 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$576 Vol.
1%
13°C
$113 Vol.
1%
14°C
$43 Vol.
2%
15°C
$28 Vol.
11%
16°C
$16 Vol.
15%
17°C
$11 Vol.
29%
18°C
$26 Vol.
31%
19°C
$11 Vol.
19%
20°C or higher
$47 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, corroborated by IMGW updates, project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 18 clustering around 17-18°C under a developing high-pressure ridge bringing sunnier skies and above-average spring warmth, driving trader consensus toward these outcomes at 28.5-30.5% implied probabilities. The tight race reflects model spread from variable cloud cover and southerly flow strength, with 19°C (19%) viable if clearer conditions enhance insolation, while 16°C (13.5%) accounts for potential overcast persistence. Climatological mid-April highs average 14°C, but recent mild trends—today's 15°C—support warmer bias. New 12z model runs expected within hours could refine resolution near Warsaw's official measurement station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$3,247Data di fine
18 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, corroborated by IMGW updates, project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 18 clustering around 17-18°C under a developing high-pressure ridge bringing sunnier skies and above-average spring warmth, driving trader consensus toward these outcomes at 28.5-30.5% implied probabilities. The tight race reflects model spread from variable cloud cover and southerly flow strength, with 19°C (19%) viable if clearer conditions enhance insolation, while 16°C (13.5%) accounts for potential overcast persistence. Climatological mid-April highs average 14°C, but recent mild trends—today's 15°C—support warmer bias. New 12z model runs expected within hours could refine resolution near Warsaw's official measurement station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,247Data di fine
18 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts, corroborated by IMGW updates, project Warsaw's highest temperature on April 18 clustering around 17-18°C under a developing high-pressure ridge bringing sunnier skies and above-average spring warmth, driving trader consensus toward these outcomes at 28.5-30.5% implied probabilities. The tight race reflects model spread from variable cloud cover and southerly flow strength, with 19°C (19%) viable if clearer conditions enhance insolation, while 16°C (13.5%) accounts for potential overcast persistence. Climatological mid-April highs average 14°C, but recent mild trends—today's 15°C—support warmer bias. New 12z model runs expected within hours could refine resolution near Warsaw's official measurement station.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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