Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain 100% implied probability for Warsaw's highest temperature on May 12 at 14°C, backed by official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport station and convergent forecasts from ECMWF ensembles and Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW). Midday readings hovered around 12°C under persistent overcast skies, scattered showers, and brisk northwest winds advecting cool maritime air that sharply curtailed solar insolation—well below the mid-May climatological average of 19°C. Updated model runs over the past 24 hours show minimal divergence, with persistent cloud cover suppressing any significant afternoon heating. Realistic challenges include an improbable prolonged clearing allowing a late-day insolation spike to 15°C, though ongoing precipitation renders this low-risk; final resolution awaits finalized airport data through midnight.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 12?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 12?
14°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$84,997 Vol.
$84,997 Vol.
12 mag 2026
5°C or below
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
5°C or below <1%
6°C <1%
7°C <1%
$84,997 Vol.
$84,997 Vol.
12 mag 2026
5°C or below
$3,542 Vol.
No
6°C
$3,513 Vol.
No
7°C
$3,491 Vol.
No
8°C
$3,447 Vol.
No
9°C
$4,428 Vol.
No
10°C
$2,954 Vol.
No
11°C
$7,348 Vol.
No
12°C
$23,286 Vol.
No
13°C
$7,089 Vol.
No
14°C
$15,290 Vol.
Yes
15°C or higher
$10,609 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain 100% implied probability for Warsaw's highest temperature on May 12 at 14°C, backed by official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport station and convergent forecasts from ECMWF ensembles and Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW). Midday readings hovered around 12°C under persistent overcast skies, scattered showers, and brisk northwest winds advecting cool maritime air that sharply curtailed solar insolation—well below the mid-May climatological average of 19°C. Updated model runs over the past 24 hours show minimal divergence, with persistent cloud cover suppressing any significant afternoon heating. Realistic challenges include an improbable prolonged clearing allowing a late-day insolation spike to 15°C, though ongoing precipitation renders this low-risk; final resolution awaits finalized airport data through midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 10, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Volume
$84,997Data di fine
12 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 10, 2026, 12:11 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain 100% implied probability for Warsaw's highest temperature on May 12 at 14°C, backed by official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport station and convergent forecasts from ECMWF ensembles and Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW). Midday readings hovered around 12°C under persistent overcast skies, scattered showers, and brisk northwest winds advecting cool maritime air that sharply curtailed solar insolation—well below the mid-May climatological average of 19°C. Updated model runs over the past 24 hours show minimal divergence, with persistent cloud cover suppressing any significant afternoon heating. Realistic challenges include an improbable prolonged clearing allowing a late-day insolation spike to 15°C, though ongoing precipitation renders this low-risk; final resolution awaits finalized airport data through midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$84,997Data di fine
12 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 10, 2026, 12:11 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain 100% implied probability for Warsaw's highest temperature on May 12 at 14°C, backed by official observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport station and convergent forecasts from ECMWF ensembles and Poland's Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW). Midday readings hovered around 12°C under persistent overcast skies, scattered showers, and brisk northwest winds advecting cool maritime air that sharply curtailed solar insolation—well below the mid-May climatological average of 19°C. Updated model runs over the past 24 hours show minimal divergence, with persistent cloud cover suppressing any significant afternoon heating. Realistic challenges include an improbable prolonged clearing allowing a late-day insolation spike to 15°C, though ongoing precipitation renders this low-risk; final resolution awaits finalized airport data through midnight.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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