Developing El Niño conditions, now transitioning from ENSO-neutral with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures rising sharply toward +0.9°C in key regions, represent the main catalyst behind the tightly clustered market odds around 1.15–1.24°C anomalies for June 2026. Official outlooks from NOAA and IRI assign an 82–98% probability of El Niño emergence by May–July, which typically amplifies global temperatures through enhanced heat release from the ocean, though the event’s initial strength and precise timing introduce notable uncertainty. This overlays the long-term warming trend, with recent WMO projections indicating 2026 annual means likely between 1.3–1.9°C above pre-industrial levels and high odds of near-record warmth. Model consensus and historical analogs support moderate-to-strong outcomes in the 1.15–1.29°C range, while variability in atmospheric coupling keeps lower and higher bins competitive ahead of June observational data.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 44%
1.25–1.29ºC 40%
1.10–1.14ºC 38%
<1.10ºC 27%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 giu 2026
<1.10ºC
27%
1.10–1.14ºC
38%
1.15–1.19ºC
44%
1.20–1.24ºC
42%
1.25–1.29ºC
40%
>1.29ºC
42%
1.15–1.19ºC 44%
1.25–1.29ºC 40%
1.10–1.14ºC 38%
<1.10ºC 27%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 giu 2026
<1.10ºC
$5 Vol.
27%
1.10–1.14ºC
$0 Vol.
38%
1.15–1.19ºC
$0 Vol.
44%
1.20–1.24ºC
$171 Vol.
42%
1.25–1.29ºC
$0 Vol.
40%
>1.29ºC
$2 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Developing El Niño conditions, now transitioning from ENSO-neutral with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures rising sharply toward +0.9°C in key regions, represent the main catalyst behind the tightly clustered market odds around 1.15–1.24°C anomalies for June 2026. Official outlooks from NOAA and IRI assign an 82–98% probability of El Niño emergence by May–July, which typically amplifies global temperatures through enhanced heat release from the ocean, though the event’s initial strength and precise timing introduce notable uncertainty. This overlays the long-term warming trend, with recent WMO projections indicating 2026 annual means likely between 1.3–1.9°C above pre-industrial levels and high odds of near-record warmth. Model consensus and historical analogs support moderate-to-strong outcomes in the 1.15–1.29°C range, while variability in atmospheric coupling keeps lower and higher bins competitive ahead of June observational data.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$178Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Developing El Niño conditions, now transitioning from ENSO-neutral with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures rising sharply toward +0.9°C in key regions, represent the main catalyst behind the tightly clustered market odds around 1.15–1.24°C anomalies for June 2026. Official outlooks from NOAA and IRI assign an 82–98% probability of El Niño emergence by May–July, which typically amplifies global temperatures through enhanced heat release from the ocean, though the event’s initial strength and precise timing introduce notable uncertainty. This overlays the long-term warming trend, with recent WMO projections indicating 2026 annual means likely between 1.3–1.9°C above pre-industrial levels and high odds of near-record warmth. Model consensus and historical analogs support moderate-to-strong outcomes in the 1.15–1.29°C range, while variability in atmospheric coupling keeps lower and higher bins competitive ahead of June observational data.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$178Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Developing El Niño conditions, now transitioning from ENSO-neutral with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures rising sharply toward +0.9°C in key regions, represent the main catalyst behind the tightly clustered market odds around 1.15–1.24°C anomalies for June 2026. Official outlooks from NOAA and IRI assign an 82–98% probability of El Niño emergence by May–July, which typically amplifies global temperatures through enhanced heat release from the ocean, though the event’s initial strength and precise timing introduce notable uncertainty. This overlays the long-term warming trend, with recent WMO projections indicating 2026 annual means likely between 1.3–1.9°C above pre-industrial levels and high odds of near-record warmth. Model consensus and historical analogs support moderate-to-strong outcomes in the 1.15–1.29°C range, while variability in atmospheric coupling keeps lower and higher bins competitive ahead of June observational data.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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