Recent National Weather Service model guidance and ensemble forecasts for New York City point to an overnight low in the upper 60s on June 18, with the 68–69°F bin holding the highest implied probability at 37% amid tight clustering around 66–69°F. Key differentiating factors include variable radiative cooling rates under partly cloudy conditions, light southerly winds limiting mixing, and the moderating influence of coastal humidity and the urban heat island effect at the official Central Park station. Minor shifts in forecast timing or cloud cover could push the minimum across bin boundaries, while historical June climatology shows typical lows near 62–65°F, underscoring the current warmer anomaly. Updated NWS briefings and hourly observations through dawn will refine resolution probabilities.