Short-term forecast uncertainty for Tokyo’s overnight radiative cooling on July 16–17 is the dominant driver of the tightly bunched market odds around 25–28 °C. Current ensemble guidance shows modest differences in expected cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and weak southerly flow, all of which can shift the minimum by 1–2 °C. With no strong frontal passage or typhoon influence anticipated in the next 48 hours, the range reflects typical midsummer variability under a subtropical high, where urban heat retention and humidity limit cooling. Historical July minima average near 25 °C, providing a climatological anchor that traders appear to weigh alongside the latest model runs. Updated forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency over the next 24 hours are likely to sharpen the distribution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Tokyo il 17 luglio?
La temperatura più bassa di Tokyo il 17 luglio?
26°C 100.0%
21°C o inferiore <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$18,330 Vol.
$18,330 Vol.
17 lug 2026
21°C o inferiore
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Sì
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C o superiore
No
26°C 100.0%
21°C o inferiore <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$18,330 Vol.
$18,330 Vol.
17 lug 2026
21°C o inferiore
$386 Vol.
No
22°C
$455 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,670 Vol.
No
24°C
$792 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,542 Vol.
No
26°C
$1,745 Vol.
Sì
27°C
$3,966 Vol.
No
28°C
$5,019 Vol.
No
29°C
$767 Vol.
No
30°C
$1,006 Vol.
No
31°C o superiore
$982 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty for Tokyo’s overnight radiative cooling on July 16–17 is the dominant driver of the tightly bunched market odds around 25–28 °C. Current ensemble guidance shows modest differences in expected cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and weak southerly flow, all of which can shift the minimum by 1–2 °C. With no strong frontal passage or typhoon influence anticipated in the next 48 hours, the range reflects typical midsummer variability under a subtropical high, where urban heat retention and humidity limit cooling. Historical July minima average near 25 °C, providing a climatological anchor that traders appear to weigh alongside the latest model runs. Updated forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency over the next 24 hours are likely to sharpen the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jul 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$18,330Data di fine
17 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty for Tokyo’s overnight radiative cooling on July 16–17 is the dominant driver of the tightly bunched market odds around 25–28 °C. Current ensemble guidance shows modest differences in expected cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and weak southerly flow, all of which can shift the minimum by 1–2 °C. With no strong frontal passage or typhoon influence anticipated in the next 48 hours, the range reflects typical midsummer variability under a subtropical high, where urban heat retention and humidity limit cooling. Historical July minima average near 25 °C, providing a climatological anchor that traders appear to weigh alongside the latest model runs. Updated forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency over the next 24 hours are likely to sharpen the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$18,330Data di fine
17 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Short-term forecast uncertainty for Tokyo’s overnight radiative cooling on July 16–17 is the dominant driver of the tightly bunched market odds around 25–28 °C. Current ensemble guidance shows modest differences in expected cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and weak southerly flow, all of which can shift the minimum by 1–2 °C. With no strong frontal passage or typhoon influence anticipated in the next 48 hours, the range reflects typical midsummer variability under a subtropical high, where urban heat retention and humidity limit cooling. Historical July minima average near 25 °C, providing a climatological anchor that traders appear to weigh alongside the latest model runs. Updated forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency over the next 24 hours are likely to sharpen the distribution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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