Japan Meteorological Agency observations from Tokyo's Haneda Airport station—the market's resolution source—confirm the daily minimum temperature hit 17°C during pre-dawn hours on May 9, 2026, matching converged short-range forecast models amid partly cloudy skies, mild southerly winds, and urban heat island effects typical for early May in Tokyo. Ensemble guidance from JMA indicates no cooler air mass or radiative cooling potential remains, with daytime highs now exceeding 22°C under stable atmospheric conditions. This observational lock-in drives the 100% market-implied probability on 17°C, reflecting traders' confidence in verified data over projections. Only a measurement revision or improbable overnight temperature plunge—unlikely given current upper-air stability—could challenge this positioning, with final JMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa di Tokyo il 9 maggio?
La temperatura più bassa di Tokyo il 9 maggio?
17°C 100.0%
13°C o inferiore <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$31,556 Vol.
$31,556 Vol.
9 mag 2026
13°C o inferiore
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Sì
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C o superiore
No
17°C 100.0%
13°C o inferiore <1%
14°C <1%
15°C <1%
$31,556 Vol.
$31,556 Vol.
9 mag 2026
13°C o inferiore
$6,574 Vol.
No
14°C
$1,308 Vol.
No
15°C
$3,475 Vol.
No
16°C
$1,999 Vol.
No
17°C
$3,410 Vol.
Sì
18°C
$3,140 Vol.
No
19°C
$3,911 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,530 Vol.
No
21°C
$1,937 Vol.
No
22°C
$2,543 Vol.
No
23°C o superiore
$1,728 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency observations from Tokyo's Haneda Airport station—the market's resolution source—confirm the daily minimum temperature hit 17°C during pre-dawn hours on May 9, 2026, matching converged short-range forecast models amid partly cloudy skies, mild southerly winds, and urban heat island effects typical for early May in Tokyo. Ensemble guidance from JMA indicates no cooler air mass or radiative cooling potential remains, with daytime highs now exceeding 22°C under stable atmospheric conditions. This observational lock-in drives the 100% market-implied probability on 17°C, reflecting traders' confidence in verified data over projections. Only a measurement revision or improbable overnight temperature plunge—unlikely given current upper-air stability—could challenge this positioning, with final JMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercato aperto: May 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$31,556Data di fine
9 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Japan Meteorological Agency observations from Tokyo's Haneda Airport station—the market's resolution source—confirm the daily minimum temperature hit 17°C during pre-dawn hours on May 9, 2026, matching converged short-range forecast models amid partly cloudy skies, mild southerly winds, and urban heat island effects typical for early May in Tokyo. Ensemble guidance from JMA indicates no cooler air mass or radiative cooling potential remains, with daytime highs now exceeding 22°C under stable atmospheric conditions. This observational lock-in drives the 100% market-implied probability on 17°C, reflecting traders' confidence in verified data over projections. Only a measurement revision or improbable overnight temperature plunge—unlikely given current upper-air stability—could challenge this positioning, with final JMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$31,556Data di fine
9 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Japan Meteorological Agency observations from Tokyo's Haneda Airport station—the market's resolution source—confirm the daily minimum temperature hit 17°C during pre-dawn hours on May 9, 2026, matching converged short-range forecast models amid partly cloudy skies, mild southerly winds, and urban heat island effects typical for early May in Tokyo. Ensemble guidance from JMA indicates no cooler air mass or radiative cooling potential remains, with daytime highs now exceeding 22°C under stable atmospheric conditions. This observational lock-in drives the 100% market-implied probability on 17°C, reflecting traders' confidence in verified data over projections. Only a measurement revision or improbable overnight temperature plunge—unlikely given current upper-air stability—could challenge this positioning, with final JMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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