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icon for Estensione minima del ghiaccio marino artico quest' estate?

Estensione minima del ghiaccio marino artico quest' estate?

icon for Estensione minima del ghiaccio marino artico quest' estate?

Estensione minima del ghiaccio marino artico quest' estate?

4,4-4,6 mln kmq 33.6%

4,6-4,8 mln kmq 28.9%

4,2-4,4 mln kmq 17.8%

4,0-4,2 mln km² 9.7%

Polymarket

$68,985 Vol.

4,4-4,6 mln kmq 33.6%

4,6-4,8 mln kmq 28.9%

4,2-4,4 mln kmq 17.8%

4,0-4,2 mln km² 9.7%

Polymarket

$68,985 Vol.

<4 milioni di km²

$30,910 Vol.

8%

4,0-4,2 mln km²

$6,738 Vol.

10%

4,2-4,4 mln kmq

$3,116 Vol.

18%

4,4-4,6 mln kmq

$3,154 Vol.

34%

4,6-4,8 mln kmq

$6,969 Vol.

29%

4,8-5 milioni kmq

$3,595 Vol.

5%

5 mln+ kmq

$14,503 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Current observational data from NSIDC and OSI SAF place mid-August 2026 Arctic sea ice extent near 7 million km², ranking among the lowest nine years on record and tracking below the 1991-2020 average after a sixth-lowest June. Regional contrasts drive uncertainty between the closely matched 4.4-4.6 and 4.6-4.8 million km² bins: pronounced deficits persist in the Barents, Kara, and Greenland Seas from early melt and warm advection, while slower retreat or temporary stabilization occurred in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas amid variable storm activity. Post-2007 historical analogs and statistical outlooks favor a September minimum in the 4.0-5.7 million km² range, with trader-implied odds reflecting sensitivity to unpredictable late-summer weather patterns and upcoming model updates.

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$68,985
Data di fine
1 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Current observational data from NSIDC and OSI SAF place mid-August 2026 Arctic sea ice extent near 7 million km², ranking among the lowest nine years on record and tracking below the 1991-2020 average after a sixth-lowest June. Regional contrasts drive uncertainty between the closely matched 4.4-4.6 and 4.6-4.8 million km² bins: pronounced deficits persist in the Barents, Kara, and Greenland Seas from early melt and warm advection, while slower retreat or temporary stabilization occurred in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas amid variable storm activity. Post-2007 historical analogs and statistical outlooks favor a September minimum in the 4.0-5.7 million km² range, with trader-implied odds reflecting sensitivity to unpredictable late-summer weather patterns and upcoming model updates.

This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$68,985
Data di fine
1 ott 2026
Mercato aperto
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

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"Estensione minima del ghiaccio marino artico quest' estate?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 7 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "4,4-4,6 mln kmq" a 34%, seguito da "4,6-4,8 mln kmq" a 29%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 34¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 34% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Estensione minima del ghiaccio marino artico quest' estate?" ha generato $69K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Nov 20, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Estensione minima del ghiaccio marino artico quest' estate?", esplora i 7 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Estensione minima del ghiaccio marino artico quest' estate?" è "4,4-4,6 mln kmq" a 34%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 34% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "4,6-4,8 mln kmq" a 29%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Estensione minima del ghiaccio marino artico quest' estate?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.