A developing super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +3.0°C in mid-September 2026 and subsurface heat content surging, is the dominant factor elevating global temperatures and supporting market-implied odds centered on 1.35–1.44°C anomalies above the 1850–1900 baseline. Official analyses from Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA show August 2026 as the joint-warmest month on record at 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels, with September tracking near 1.69°C amid persistent ocean heat release. Model consensus points to further intensification through late 2026, though the full monthly global average remains sensitive to late-September weather patterns and dataset revisions. Traders appear to weigh this ENSO-driven warming against typical seasonal cooling and measurement uncertainty in the final tally.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSettembre 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
Settembre 2026 Aumento della temperatura (ºC)
1,35–1,39ºC 50%
1,40–1,44ºC 37%
1,30–1,34ºC 16%
<1,30ºC 7%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 nov 2026
<1,30ºC
7%
1,30–1,34ºC
12%
1,35–1,39ºC
50%
1,40–1,44ºC
37%
1,45–1,49ºC
9%
>1,49ºC
5%
1,35–1,39ºC 50%
1,40–1,44ºC 37%
1,30–1,34ºC 16%
<1,30ºC 7%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 nov 2026
<1,30ºC
$89 Vol.
7%
1,30–1,34ºC
$1,363 Vol.
12%
1,35–1,39ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1,40–1,44ºC
$0 Vol.
37%
1,45–1,49ºC
$124 Vol.
9%
>1,49ºC
$263 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +3.0°C in mid-September 2026 and subsurface heat content surging, is the dominant factor elevating global temperatures and supporting market-implied odds centered on 1.35–1.44°C anomalies above the 1850–1900 baseline. Official analyses from Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA show August 2026 as the joint-warmest month on record at 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels, with September tracking near 1.69°C amid persistent ocean heat release. Model consensus points to further intensification through late 2026, though the full monthly global average remains sensitive to late-September weather patterns and dataset revisions. Traders appear to weigh this ENSO-driven warming against typical seasonal cooling and measurement uncertainty in the final tally.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$1,839Data di fine
2 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A developing super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +3.0°C in mid-September 2026 and subsurface heat content surging, is the dominant factor elevating global temperatures and supporting market-implied odds centered on 1.35–1.44°C anomalies above the 1850–1900 baseline. Official analyses from Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA show August 2026 as the joint-warmest month on record at 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels, with September tracking near 1.69°C amid persistent ocean heat release. Model consensus points to further intensification through late 2026, though the full monthly global average remains sensitive to late-September weather patterns and dataset revisions. Traders appear to weigh this ENSO-driven warming against typical seasonal cooling and measurement uncertainty in the final tally.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$1,839Data di fine
2 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...A developing super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +3.0°C in mid-September 2026 and subsurface heat content surging, is the dominant factor elevating global temperatures and supporting market-implied odds centered on 1.35–1.44°C anomalies above the 1850–1900 baseline. Official analyses from Copernicus ERA5 and NOAA show August 2026 as the joint-warmest month on record at 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels, with September tracking near 1.69°C amid persistent ocean heat release. Model consensus points to further intensification through late 2026, though the full monthly global average remains sensitive to late-September weather patterns and dataset revisions. Traders appear to weigh this ENSO-driven warming against typical seasonal cooling and measurement uncertainty in the final tally.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti