**Justice Samuel Alito’s August 2026 confirmation that he plans to serve another term has anchored trader expectations against a 2026 vacancy.** An erroneous June NPR report had briefly fueled retirement speculation around the 76-year-old justice, but Alito directly rebutted it in a Wall Street Journal interview, stating he is “here for another term.” Clarence Thomas, the court’s oldest member at 78, has likewise issued no retirement signals, and neither justice has disclosed health concerns that would prompt an early exit. The nine-justice bench remains at full strength with no announced departures or procedural openings through early September. Broader political factors, including midterm Senate control risks and Democratic proposals to expand the court’s size, have not translated into confirmed retirements or vacancies in the current calendar year. Traders therefore assign roughly 78% probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of concrete developments that would open a seat before December 31. Late-year health events or unexpected announcements remain the primary variables that could still shift the odds.