**US strike on Mexico by December 31?** Trader consensus currently prices a qualifying US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Mexican territory at low single-digit to low-20s percent probability. US actions against cartels have focused on maritime interdiction of smuggling vessels in international waters, high-energy laser intercepts of cartel drones along the border (over 300 reported in 2026), financial sanctions, and intelligence support for Mexican operations, including the February 2026 elimination of a major CJNG leader. Mexican authorities under President Sheinbaum have expanded joint anti-drone patrols, money-laundering targeting, and seizures while repeatedly rejecting unilateral US military action on sovereign soil. Recent statements from US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, emphasize preference for bilateral efforts but note the threat may need addressing “one way or the other,” with no confirmed land strikes to date. Diplomatic costs, Mexican sovereignty assertions, and ongoing cooperation continue to anchor expectations against a qualifying strike before year-end, though cartel violence and border security pressures remain key variables.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAttacco degli Stati Uniti al Messico da parte di...?
Attacco degli Stati Uniti al Messico da parte di...?
$3,459,892 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 dicembre
10%
$3,459,892 Vol.
31 dicembre
$731,430 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.**US strike on Mexico by December 31?** Trader consensus currently prices a qualifying US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Mexican territory at low single-digit to low-20s percent probability. US actions against cartels have focused on maritime interdiction of smuggling vessels in international waters, high-energy laser intercepts of cartel drones along the border (over 300 reported in 2026), financial sanctions, and intelligence support for Mexican operations, including the February 2026 elimination of a major CJNG leader. Mexican authorities under President Sheinbaum have expanded joint anti-drone patrols, money-laundering targeting, and seizures while repeatedly rejecting unilateral US military action on sovereign soil. Recent statements from US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, emphasize preference for bilateral efforts but note the threat may need addressing “one way or the other,” with no confirmed land strikes to date. Diplomatic costs, Mexican sovereignty assertions, and ongoing cooperation continue to anchor expectations against a qualifying strike before year-end, though cartel violence and border security pressures remain key variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercato aperto: Jan 4, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Volume
$3,459,892Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 4, 2026, 2:52 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.**US strike on Mexico by December 31?** Trader consensus currently prices a qualifying US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Mexican territory at low single-digit to low-20s percent probability. US actions against cartels have focused on maritime interdiction of smuggling vessels in international waters, high-energy laser intercepts of cartel drones along the border (over 300 reported in 2026), financial sanctions, and intelligence support for Mexican operations, including the February 2026 elimination of a major CJNG leader. Mexican authorities under President Sheinbaum have expanded joint anti-drone patrols, money-laundering targeting, and seizures while repeatedly rejecting unilateral US military action on sovereign soil. Recent statements from US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, emphasize preference for bilateral efforts but note the threat may need addressing “one way or the other,” with no confirmed land strikes to date. Diplomatic costs, Mexican sovereignty assertions, and ongoing cooperation continue to anchor expectations against a qualifying strike before year-end, though cartel violence and border security pressures remain key variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$3,459,892Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 4, 2026, 2:52 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**US strike on Mexico by December 31?** Trader consensus currently prices a qualifying US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Mexican territory at low single-digit to low-20s percent probability. US actions against cartels have focused on maritime interdiction of smuggling vessels in international waters, high-energy laser intercepts of cartel drones along the border (over 300 reported in 2026), financial sanctions, and intelligence support for Mexican operations, including the February 2026 elimination of a major CJNG leader. Mexican authorities under President Sheinbaum have expanded joint anti-drone patrols, money-laundering targeting, and seizures while repeatedly rejecting unilateral US military action on sovereign soil. Recent statements from US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, emphasize preference for bilateral efforts but note the threat may need addressing “one way or the other,” with no confirmed land strikes to date. Diplomatic costs, Mexican sovereignty assertions, and ongoing cooperation continue to anchor expectations against a qualifying strike before year-end, though cartel violence and border security pressures remain key variables.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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