Skip to main content
Market icon
Geopolitica·Cartello Di Nuova Generazione Di Jalisco

Quali leader del cartello saranno arrestati nel 2026?

Market icon
Geopolitica·Cartello Di Nuova Generazione Di Jalisco

Quali leader del cartello saranno arrestati nel 2026?

$75,312 Vol.

28 feb 2026
Polymarket

$75,312 Vol.

Polymarket

Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar

$5,603 Vol.

45%

Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar

$5,775 Vol.

55%

Ricardo Ruiz Velasco

$0 Vol.

53%

Audias Flores-Silva

$0 Vol.

29%

Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan

$4,795 Vol.

34%

Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez

$58,491 Vol.

53%

Juan Reyes Mejía González

$0 Vol.

55%

Juan Pablo Ledezma

$647 Vol.

55%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mexican authorities killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias "El Mencho," in a February 22 military operation in Jalisco, disrupting the group's command structure and prompting U.S. rewards for potential successors like "El 03." U.S. prosecutors indicted Sinaloa Cartel plaza boss René Arzate-García, alias "La Rana," on narcoterrorism charges on February 26, offering a $5 million reward amid heightened DOJ-DEA focus on fentanyl trafficking. Mexico extradited dozens of cartel suspects to the U.S. in January, while recent arrests include Gulf Cartel cell leader "El Lexus" and Sinaloa-linked traffickers. Ongoing joint operations signal trader expectations for more high-profile captures before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$75,312
Data di fine
28 feb 2026
Mercato aperto
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Mexican authorities killed Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias "El Mencho," in a February 22 military operation in Jalisco, disrupting the group's command structure and prompting U.S. rewards for potential successors like "El 03." U.S. prosecutors indicted Sinaloa Cartel plaza boss René Arzate-García, alias "La Rana," on narcoterrorism charges on February 26, offering a $5 million reward amid heightened DOJ-DEA focus on fentanyl trafficking. Mexico extradited dozens of cartel suspects to the U.S. in January, while recent arrests include Gulf Cartel cell leader "El Lexus" and Sinaloa-linked traffickers. Ongoing joint operations signal trader expectations for more high-profile captures before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$75,312
Data di fine
28 feb 2026
Mercato aperto
Feb 23, 2026, 8:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Quali leader del cartello saranno arrestati nel 2026?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 8 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Juan Pablo Ledezma" a 56%, seguito da "Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar" a 55%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 56¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 56% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Quali leader del cartello saranno arrestati nel 2026?" ha generato $75.3K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Feb 24, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Quali leader del cartello saranno arrestati nel 2026?", esplora i 8 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Quali leader del cartello saranno arrestati nel 2026?" è "Juan Pablo Ledezma" a 56%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 56% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar" a 55%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Quali leader del cartello saranno arrestati nel 2026?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.