Frequent outages at Anthropic's Claude AI service, including a major disruption on April 15, 2026—lasting 40 minutes fully down and 73 minutes partially—ahead of another on April 16, have propelled trader consensus toward 70% implied probability for 12+ downtime days in May. April's ninth reported incident underscores ongoing scaling challenges for the large language model amid explosive demand growth, echoing five outages in March alone. While Anthropic has identified some error sources, no infrastructure fixes have stemmed the tide, positioning lower buckets like 9-11 days at 20%. Traders eye status.claude.com updates and potential capacity announcements as key May catalysts, though historical patterns suggest persistent vulnerability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWill Claude go down on __ days in May?
Will Claude go down on __ days in May?
12+ 70%
9-11 27%
3-5 15%
6-8 14%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 mag 2026
0-2
4%
3-5
15%
6-8
14%
9-11
19%
12+
70%
12+ 70%
9-11 27%
3-5 15%
6-8 14%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 mag 2026
0-2
$199 Vol.
4%
3-5
$633 Vol.
15%
6-8
$37 Vol.
14%
9-11
$50 Vol.
19%
12+
$338 Vol.
70%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Frequent outages at Anthropic's Claude AI service, including a major disruption on April 15, 2026—lasting 40 minutes fully down and 73 minutes partially—ahead of another on April 16, have propelled trader consensus toward 70% implied probability for 12+ downtime days in May. April's ninth reported incident underscores ongoing scaling challenges for the large language model amid explosive demand growth, echoing five outages in March alone. While Anthropic has identified some error sources, no infrastructure fixes have stemmed the tide, positioning lower buckets like 9-11 days at 20%. Traders eye status.claude.com updates and potential capacity announcements as key May catalysts, though historical patterns suggest persistent vulnerability.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Mercato aperto: Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volume
$1,258Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Frequent outages at Anthropic's Claude AI service, including a major disruption on April 15, 2026—lasting 40 minutes fully down and 73 minutes partially—ahead of another on April 16, have propelled trader consensus toward 70% implied probability for 12+ downtime days in May. April's ninth reported incident underscores ongoing scaling challenges for the large language model amid explosive demand growth, echoing five outages in March alone. While Anthropic has identified some error sources, no infrastructure fixes have stemmed the tide, positioning lower buckets like 9-11 days at 20%. Traders eye status.claude.com updates and potential capacity announcements as key May catalysts, though historical patterns suggest persistent vulnerability.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volume
$1,258Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Frequent outages at Anthropic's Claude AI service, including a major disruption on April 15, 2026—lasting 40 minutes fully down and 73 minutes partially—ahead of another on April 16, have propelled trader consensus toward 70% implied probability for 12+ downtime days in May. April's ninth reported incident underscores ongoing scaling challenges for the large language model amid explosive demand growth, echoing five outages in March alone. While Anthropic has identified some error sources, no infrastructure fixes have stemmed the tide, positioning lower buckets like 9-11 days at 20%. Traders eye status.claude.com updates and potential capacity announcements as key May catalysts, though historical patterns suggest persistent vulnerability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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