**Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly floated the idea of referendums on major reforms throughout his presidency but has never convened one, consistent with the 92% implied probability that none will occur by December 31.** Recent developments reinforce this outlook. In August 2026, after the Constitutional Council struck down the flagship under-15 social media ban on free-expression grounds, Macron directed Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu to prepare a revised bill for parliamentary passage by spring 2027 rather than pursuing a direct popular vote. The assisted-dying law, another long-standing priority, advanced through parliament and was promulgated without referendum mechanisms. With Macron’s second and final term ending in 2027 and the next presidential election set for April, attention has shifted to legislative fixes and legacy measures amid a fragmented National Assembly. Past public statements on using Article 11 referendums for economic, social, or environmental issues have not translated into action, and no qualifying presidential decree appears imminent in the remaining months of 2026. Traders price the low likelihood accordingly, viewing legislative routes and the compressed timeline as significant barriers.