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Politica·Francia

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

Market icon
Politica·Francia

Will France pass a national budget by December 31?

41% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
41% probabilità
Polymarket
NUOVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French parliament passes a 2027 national budget (Loi de Finances pour 2027) and it is published in the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET (UTC+01:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying budget must provide funding for the entire year 2027. Special or emergency funding bills will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, specifically the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) (journal-officiel.gouv.fr). However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 59% for France passing its national budget by December 31, 2026, reflecting persistent parliamentary deadlock from the hung Assemblée Nationale since the 2024 snap election, which produced no majority government. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's minority administration barely adopted the 2026 budget in February—months after missing the prior deadline—via repeated Article 49.3 invocations that triggered multiple failed no-confidence motions from far-left and far-right blocs. With fiscal pressures mounting for steeper deficit cuts (targeting below 5% of GDP amid EU scrutiny), opposition to austerity measures, and 2027 presidential election tensions looming, traders anticipate similar delays despite early negotiations. Upcoming fall presentation of the 2027 projet de loi de finances heightens uncertainty.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French parliament passes a 2027 national budget (Loi de Finances pour 2027) and it is published in the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET (UTC+01:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying budget must provide funding for the entire year 2027. Special or emergency funding bills will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, specifically the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) (journal-officiel.gouv.fr). However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$5,764
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Mar 27, 2026, 1:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French parliament passes a 2027 national budget (Loi de Finances pour 2027) and it is published in the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET (UTC+01:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying budget must provide funding for the entire year 2027. Special or emergency funding bills will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, specifically the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) (journal-officiel.gouv.fr). However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French parliament passes a 2027 national budget (Loi de Finances pour 2027) and it is published in the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET (UTC+01:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying budget must provide funding for the entire year 2027. Special or emergency funding bills will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, specifically the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) (journal-officiel.gouv.fr). However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus favors "No" at 59% for France passing its national budget by December 31, 2026, reflecting persistent parliamentary deadlock from the hung Assemblée Nationale since the 2024 snap election, which produced no majority government. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's minority administration barely adopted the 2026 budget in February—months after missing the prior deadline—via repeated Article 49.3 invocations that triggered multiple failed no-confidence motions from far-left and far-right blocs. With fiscal pressures mounting for steeper deficit cuts (targeting below 5% of GDP amid EU scrutiny), opposition to austerity measures, and 2027 presidential election tensions looming, traders anticipate similar delays despite early negotiations. Upcoming fall presentation of the 2027 projet de loi de finances heightens uncertainty.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French parliament passes a 2027 national budget (Loi de Finances pour 2027) and it is published in the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET (UTC+01:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying budget must provide funding for the entire year 2027. Special or emergency funding bills will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, specifically the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) (journal-officiel.gouv.fr). However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$5,764
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Mar 27, 2026, 1:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French parliament passes a 2027 national budget (Loi de Finances pour 2027) and it is published in the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET (UTC+01:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying budget must provide funding for the entire year 2027. Special or emergency funding bills will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, specifically the Official Journal of France (Journal Officiel) (journal-officiel.gouv.fr). However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Domande frequenti

"Will France pass a national budget by December 31?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni "Sì" o "No" in base a se credono che questo evento accadrà. La probabilità attuale aggregata è 41% per "Yes". Ad esempio, se "Sì" è quotato a 41¢, il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 41% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"Will France pass a national budget by December 31?" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Mar 27, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "Will France pass a national budget by December 31?", scegli semplicemente se ritieni che la risposta sia "Sì" o "No". Ogni lato ha un prezzo corrente che riflette la probabilità implicita del mercato. Inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se compri azioni "Sì" e l'esito si risolve come "Sì", ogni azione paga $1. Se si risolve come "No", le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

La probabilità attuale per "Will France pass a national budget by December 31?" è 41% per "Yes". Questo significa che la comunità Polymarket attualmente ritiene che ci sia una probabilità di 41% che questo evento si verifichi. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale basandosi sulle operazioni effettive, fornendo un segnale continuamente aggiornato di ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Will France pass a national budget by December 31?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.