**The Quebec general election on October 5, 2026, features a first-past-the-post system across 127 ridings that strongly favors established parties with concentrated regional support.** Recent polling aggregates from Léger, Pallas Data, and others show the Parti Québécois leading at around 29%, followed by the CAQ and Liberals in the low-to-mid 20s, with Québec solidaire and the Conservatives each in the 10-15% range; PVQ (Parti Vert du Québec) registers only in the low single digits or within the residual “other” category at roughly 1%, with no measurable riding-level strength in current projections. Seat models from 338Canada, The Writ, and similar forecasters allocate dozens of seats to the PQ, CAQ, Liberals, QS, and PCQ while showing zero realistic path for PVQ, reflecting its historically minimal vote share (0.75% in 2022) and absence of competitive candidates in winnable districts. Voter attention remains fixed on the PQ-CAQ contest and the possibility of a minority government, leaving little room for smaller green or environmental parties to break through. These dynamics explain the market’s 94% implied probability that PVQ will win no seats.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato6% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
5 ott 2026
6% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
5 ott 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**The Quebec general election on October 5, 2026, features a first-past-the-post system across 127 ridings that strongly favors established parties with concentrated regional support.** Recent polling aggregates from Léger, Pallas Data, and others show the Parti Québécois leading at around 29%, followed by the CAQ and Liberals in the low-to-mid 20s, with Québec solidaire and the Conservatives each in the 10-15% range; PVQ (Parti Vert du Québec) registers only in the low single digits or within the residual “other” category at roughly 1%, with no measurable riding-level strength in current projections.
Seat models from 338Canada, The Writ, and similar forecasters allocate dozens of seats to the PQ, CAQ, Liberals, QS, and PCQ while showing zero realistic path for PVQ, reflecting its historically minimal vote share (0.75% in 2022) and absence of competitive candidates in winnable districts. Voter attention remains fixed on the PQ-CAQ contest and the possibility of a minority government, leaving little room for smaller green or environmental parties to break through. These dynamics explain the market’s 94% implied probability that PVQ will win no seats.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercato aperto: Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Volume
$203Data di fine
5 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**The Quebec general election on October 5, 2026, features a first-past-the-post system across 127 ridings that strongly favors established parties with concentrated regional support.** Recent polling aggregates from Léger, Pallas Data, and others show the Parti Québécois leading at around 29%, followed by the CAQ and Liberals in the low-to-mid 20s, with Québec solidaire and the Conservatives each in the 10-15% range; PVQ (Parti Vert du Québec) registers only in the low single digits or within the residual “other” category at roughly 1%, with no measurable riding-level strength in current projections.
Seat models from 338Canada, The Writ, and similar forecasters allocate dozens of seats to the PQ, CAQ, Liberals, QS, and PCQ while showing zero realistic path for PVQ, reflecting its historically minimal vote share (0.75% in 2022) and absence of competitive candidates in winnable districts. Voter attention remains fixed on the PQ-CAQ contest and the possibility of a minority government, leaving little room for smaller green or environmental parties to break through. These dynamics explain the market’s 94% implied probability that PVQ will win no seats.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti vert du Québec (PVQ) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$203Data di fine
5 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**The Quebec general election on October 5, 2026, features a first-past-the-post system across 127 ridings that strongly favors established parties with concentrated regional support.** Recent polling aggregates from Léger, Pallas Data, and others show the Parti Québécois leading at around 29%, followed by the CAQ and Liberals in the low-to-mid 20s, with Québec solidaire and the Conservatives each in the 10-15% range; PVQ (Parti Vert du Québec) registers only in the low single digits or within the residual “other” category at roughly 1%, with no measurable riding-level strength in current projections. Seat models from 338Canada, The Writ, and similar forecasters allocate dozens of seats to the PQ, CAQ, Liberals, QS, and PCQ while showing zero realistic path for PVQ, reflecting its historically minimal vote share (0.75% in 2022) and absence of competitive candidates in winnable districts. Voter attention remains fixed on the PQ-CAQ contest and the possibility of a minority government, leaving little room for smaller green or environmental parties to break through. These dynamics explain the market’s 94% implied probability that PVQ will win no seats.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti