**Recent polling and seat projections indicate the Parti Québécois (PQ) is positioned to win the most seats in the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election but faces structural barriers to a majority of 64 in the 127-seat National Assembly.** The PQ holds a consistent lead in popular vote intentions at around 29% in late August polls (Léger, Pallas Data), ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at 24% and the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) at 22%, with the Conservatives (PCQ) at 15% and Québec solidaire (QS) at 10%. This fragmented field, including a recovering CAQ under leader Christine Fréchette and a split federalist vote, supports PQ strength in francophone ridings but limits its seat totals. Aggregators project the PQ winning a plurality in roughly 44–50 seats on average across simulations, with majority probabilities in the low single digits to around 11%. Key recent developments include the CAQ closing the gap after leadership change and early campaign momentum, high undecided voters (often 40%+), and regional patterns where the PQ competes closely with the CAQ outside Montreal while Liberals retain strength in urban and non-francophone areas. These factors explain traders’ 74% probability on “No,” reflecting the consensus that a PQ majority remains unlikely despite its frontrunner status in a multi-party contest.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato18% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
5 ott 2026
18% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
5 ott 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polling and seat projections indicate the Parti Québécois (PQ) is positioned to win the most seats in the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election but faces structural barriers to a majority of 64 in the 127-seat National Assembly.**
The PQ holds a consistent lead in popular vote intentions at around 29% in late August polls (Léger, Pallas Data), ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at 24% and the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) at 22%, with the Conservatives (PCQ) at 15% and Québec solidaire (QS) at 10%. This fragmented field, including a recovering CAQ under leader Christine Fréchette and a split federalist vote, supports PQ strength in francophone ridings but limits its seat totals. Aggregators project the PQ winning a plurality in roughly 44–50 seats on average across simulations, with majority probabilities in the low single digits to around 11%.
Key recent developments include the CAQ closing the gap after leadership change and early campaign momentum, high undecided voters (often 40%+), and regional patterns where the PQ competes closely with the CAQ outside Montreal while Liberals retain strength in urban and non-francophone areas. These factors explain traders’ 74% probability on “No,” reflecting the consensus that a PQ majority remains unlikely despite its frontrunner status in a multi-party contest.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercato aperto: Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Volume
$668Data di fine
5 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polling and seat projections indicate the Parti Québécois (PQ) is positioned to win the most seats in the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election but faces structural barriers to a majority of 64 in the 127-seat National Assembly.**
The PQ holds a consistent lead in popular vote intentions at around 29% in late August polls (Léger, Pallas Data), ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at 24% and the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) at 22%, with the Conservatives (PCQ) at 15% and Québec solidaire (QS) at 10%. This fragmented field, including a recovering CAQ under leader Christine Fréchette and a split federalist vote, supports PQ strength in francophone ridings but limits its seat totals. Aggregators project the PQ winning a plurality in roughly 44–50 seats on average across simulations, with majority probabilities in the low single digits to around 11%.
Key recent developments include the CAQ closing the gap after leadership change and early campaign momentum, high undecided voters (often 40%+), and regional patterns where the PQ competes closely with the CAQ outside Montreal while Liberals retain strength in urban and non-francophone areas. These factors explain traders’ 74% probability on “No,” reflecting the consensus that a PQ majority remains unlikely despite its frontrunner status in a multi-party contest.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Parti Québécois (PQ) wins at least 64 of the 127 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$668Data di fine
5 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 31, 2026, 3:43 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling and seat projections indicate the Parti Québécois (PQ) is positioned to win the most seats in the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election but faces structural barriers to a majority of 64 in the 127-seat National Assembly.** The PQ holds a consistent lead in popular vote intentions at around 29% in late August polls (Léger, Pallas Data), ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) at 24% and the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ) at 22%, with the Conservatives (PCQ) at 15% and Québec solidaire (QS) at 10%. This fragmented field, including a recovering CAQ under leader Christine Fréchette and a split federalist vote, supports PQ strength in francophone ridings but limits its seat totals. Aggregators project the PQ winning a plurality in roughly 44–50 seats on average across simulations, with majority probabilities in the low single digits to around 11%. Key recent developments include the CAQ closing the gap after leadership change and early campaign momentum, high undecided voters (often 40%+), and regional patterns where the PQ competes closely with the CAQ outside Montreal while Liberals retain strength in urban and non-francophone areas. These factors explain traders’ 74% probability on “No,” reflecting the consensus that a PQ majority remains unlikely despite its frontrunner status in a multi-party contest.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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