**The Vanier-Les Rivières riding in Quebec City remains a tight three-way contest ahead of the October 5, 2026 provincial election, with trader consensus reflecting comparable implied probabilities for PQ candidate Stéphanie Martin, CAQ candidate Françoise Faverjon-Fortin, and PCQ candidate Patrick Paquet.** Recent regional polling shows the PCQ performing strongly in the Quebec City area, capitalizing on voter shifts away from the incumbent CAQ, while province-wide surveys indicate the PQ holding a narrow lead or tie with a recovering CAQ. The riding’s history of CAQ dominance (47.9% in 2022) has been upended by PCQ gains and PQ momentum in francophone suburban seats. Liberal candidate Charles Hudon trails, consistent with weaker PLQ support outside Montreal. With nominations open until September 17 and no dominant local frontrunner yet emerging, the outcome hinges on turnout among Conservative-leaning voters, CAQ retention efforts, and any late provincial polling shifts that could separate the top contenders in this fragmented Capitale-Nationale district.