In the open Louis-Hébert riding, trader odds reflect a tight contest primarily between Parti Québécois candidate Chloé Fauchon and Coalition Avenir Québec’s Marc-Antoine Bernier, with other nominees trailing. The seat became vacant after longtime CAQ MNA Geneviève Guilbault opted not to seek re-election ahead of the October 5 vote. Recent provincial polling shows the PQ holding a narrow lead overall, while the CAQ has narrowed the gap in the campaign’s opening days, keeping the riding competitive. Projections from aggregators classify it as a toss-up between the two parties, consistent with shifting voter intentions and the absence of an incumbent advantage. Developments such as further provincial polling shifts, candidate debates, or turnout patterns in the Quebec City area could separate the frontrunners before nomination deadlines close and ballots are cast.