DeepSeek's official launch of the V4 preview today—featuring Mixture-of-Experts models DeepSeek-V4-Pro (1.6T total/49B active parameters) and V4-Flash (284B/13B active) with native 1M-token context for advanced reasoning and agentic coding—has solidified trader consensus around the "on or prior to April 24" outcome at 69.5% implied probability, as the open-source weights hit Hugging Face and API access went live on platform.deepseek.com. This follows weeks of escalating anticipation from Reuters' April 3 report on Huawei chip integration, founder Li Zhen's late-April timeline confirmation, and Reddit OSINT pointing to mid-to-late April amid prior delays from February Lunar New Year expectations. Early May dates like May 8–12 cluster at 38.5%, reflecting hedge bets on potential rollout tweaks or full version delays, while "not by May 15" lags at 25.9%; watch for benchmark validations and competitive positioning against GPT-5.x or Claude 4.6 that could shift sentiment further.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日On or prior to April 24 96.8%
Not released by May 15 15.2%
May 12 8.8%
April 29 2.9%
新規
$19,750 Vol.
新規
$19,750 Vol.
2026/05/15
On or prior to April 24
97%
April 25
1%
April 26
-
April 27
1%
April 28
1%
April 29
3%
April 30
1%
May 1
1%
May 2
1%
May 3
1%
May 4
1%
May 5
1%
May 6
<1%
May 7
<1%
May 8
2%
May 9
-
May 10
<1%
May 11
1%
May 12
9%
May 13
<1%
May 14
<1%
May 15
<1%
Not released by May 15
15%
On or prior to April 24 96.8%
Not released by May 15 15.2%
May 12 8.8%
April 29 2.9%
新規
$19,750 Vol.
新規
$19,750 Vol.
2026/05/15
On or prior to April 24
$8,371 Vol.
97%
April 25
$193 Vol.
1%
April 26
$150 Vol.
-
April 27
$192 Vol.
1%
April 28
$458 Vol.
1%
April 29
$435 Vol.
3%
April 30
$257 Vol.
1%
May 1
$807 Vol.
1%
May 2
$623 Vol.
1%
May 3
$654 Vol.
1%
May 4
$653 Vol.
1%
May 5
$672 Vol.
1%
May 6
$943 Vol.
<1%
May 7
$708 Vol.
<1%
May 8
$440 Vol.
2%
May 9
$235 Vol.
-
May 10
$679 Vol.
<1%
May 11
$311 Vol.
1%
May 12
$451 Vol.
9%
May 13
$450 Vol.
<1%
May 14
$450 Vol.
<1%
May 15
$401 Vol.
<1%
Not released by May 15
$2,637 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.DeepSeek's official launch of the V4 preview today—featuring Mixture-of-Experts models DeepSeek-V4-Pro (1.6T total/49B active parameters) and V4-Flash (284B/13B active) with native 1M-token context for advanced reasoning and agentic coding—has solidified trader consensus around the "on or prior to April 24" outcome at 69.5% implied probability, as the open-source weights hit Hugging Face and API access went live on platform.deepseek.com. This follows weeks of escalating anticipation from Reuters' April 3 report on Huawei chip integration, founder Li Zhen's late-April timeline confirmation, and Reddit OSINT pointing to mid-to-late April amid prior delays from February Lunar New Year expectations. Early May dates like May 8–12 cluster at 38.5%, reflecting hedge bets on potential rollout tweaks or full version delays, while "not by May 15" lags at 25.9%; watch for benchmark validations and competitive positioning against GPT-5.x or Claude 4.6 that could shift sentiment further.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
音量
$19,750終了日
2026/05/15マーケット開始日
Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.DeepSeek's official launch of the V4 preview today—featuring Mixture-of-Experts models DeepSeek-V4-Pro (1.6T total/49B active parameters) and V4-Flash (284B/13B active) with native 1M-token context for advanced reasoning and agentic coding—has solidified trader consensus around the "on or prior to April 24" outcome at 69.5% implied probability, as the open-source weights hit Hugging Face and API access went live on platform.deepseek.com. This follows weeks of escalating anticipation from Reuters' April 3 report on Huawei chip integration, founder Li Zhen's late-April timeline confirmation, and Reddit OSINT pointing to mid-to-late April amid prior delays from February Lunar New Year expectations. Early May dates like May 8–12 cluster at 38.5%, reflecting hedge bets on potential rollout tweaks or full version delays, while "not by May 15" lags at 25.9%; watch for benchmark validations and competitive positioning against GPT-5.x or Claude 4.6 that could shift sentiment further.
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) on which the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
To qualify, the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$19,750終了日
2026/05/15マーケット開始日
Apr 23, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...DeepSeek's official launch of the V4 preview today—featuring Mixture-of-Experts models DeepSeek-V4-Pro (1.6T total/49B active parameters) and V4-Flash (284B/13B active) with native 1M-token context for advanced reasoning and agentic coding—has solidified trader consensus around the "on or prior to April 24" outcome at 69.5% implied probability, as the open-source weights hit Hugging Face and API access went live on platform.deepseek.com. This follows weeks of escalating anticipation from Reuters' April 3 report on Huawei chip integration, founder Li Zhen's late-April timeline confirmation, and Reddit OSINT pointing to mid-to-late April amid prior delays from February Lunar New Year expectations. Early May dates like May 8–12 cluster at 38.5%, reflecting hedge bets on potential rollout tweaks or full version delays, while "not by May 15" lags at 25.9%; watch for benchmark validations and competitive positioning against GPT-5.x or Claude 4.6 that could shift sentiment further.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
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