xAI’s rapid iteration cycle drives trader focus on a potential Grok 4.4 release, with Grok 4.3 launched publicly on May 5, 2026, claiming top rankings in agentic tool calling and enterprise benchmarks. Elon Musk stated on May 17 that the 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 foundation model has completed training and requires three to four weeks of supplemental data, supervised fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning before launch. This timeline aligns with earlier reports of a 1-trillion-parameter 4.4 variant arriving in weeks from early May. xAI continues training seven models simultaneously on its Colossus cluster, aiming to close the gap with leading large language models from OpenAI and Anthropic through scaled compute and real-time tool integration. Key catalysts ahead include any Musk updates on training progress or API availability that could shift release expectations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/06/30
May 31
20%
June 15
28%
June 30
82%
$60 Vol.
May 31
$20 Vol.
20%
June 15
$0 Vol.
28%
June 30
$40 Vol.
82%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI’s rapid iteration cycle drives trader focus on a potential Grok 4.4 release, with Grok 4.3 launched publicly on May 5, 2026, claiming top rankings in agentic tool calling and enterprise benchmarks. Elon Musk stated on May 17 that the 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 foundation model has completed training and requires three to four weeks of supplemental data, supervised fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning before launch. This timeline aligns with earlier reports of a 1-trillion-parameter 4.4 variant arriving in weeks from early May. xAI continues training seven models simultaneously on its Colossus cluster, aiming to close the gap with leading large language models from OpenAI and Anthropic through scaled compute and real-time tool integration. Key catalysts ahead include any Musk updates on training progress or API availability that could shift release expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
音量
$60終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI’s rapid iteration cycle drives trader focus on a potential Grok 4.4 release, with Grok 4.3 launched publicly on May 5, 2026, claiming top rankings in agentic tool calling and enterprise benchmarks. Elon Musk stated on May 17 that the 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 foundation model has completed training and requires three to four weeks of supplemental data, supervised fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning before launch. This timeline aligns with earlier reports of a 1-trillion-parameter 4.4 variant arriving in weeks from early May. xAI continues training seven models simultaneously on its Colossus cluster, aiming to close the gap with leading large language models from OpenAI and Anthropic through scaled compute and real-time tool integration. Key catalysts ahead include any Musk updates on training progress or API availability that could shift release expectations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$60終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI’s rapid iteration cycle drives trader focus on a potential Grok 4.4 release, with Grok 4.3 launched publicly on May 5, 2026, claiming top rankings in agentic tool calling and enterprise benchmarks. Elon Musk stated on May 17 that the 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 foundation model has completed training and requires three to four weeks of supplemental data, supervised fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning before launch. This timeline aligns with earlier reports of a 1-trillion-parameter 4.4 variant arriving in weeks from early May. xAI continues training seven models simultaneously on its Colossus cluster, aiming to close the gap with leading large language models from OpenAI and Anthropic through scaled compute and real-time tool integration. Key catalysts ahead include any Musk updates on training progress or API availability that could shift release expectations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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