The Trump administration's expansion of industrial policy since early 2025 has driven trader sentiment, converting CHIPS Act grants, Defense Production Act funds, and other authorities into minority equity stakes across semiconductors, quantum computing, critical minerals, and defense technologies. The August 2025 conversion of roughly $8.9 billion into a nearly 10% Intel position established the model, followed by commitments to MP Materials and letters of intent for multiple quantum firms including IBM, GlobalFoundries, Rigetti, and D-Wave. Commerce Department leadership of these transactions, aimed at reshoring supply chains and countering foreign dependencies, explains elevated probabilities for additional semiconductor and quantum outcomes by the December 31, 2026 resolution date. Further announcements tied to existing programs or new appropriations could shift odds for listed companies before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$184,261 Vol.
2026/12/30
グローバルファウンドリーズ
99%
Rigetti
97%
D-Wave
97%
Unusual Machines
33%
TSMC
18%
ロッキード・マーチン
15%
マイクロン
19%
IonQ
14%
エヌビディア
14%
Anduril
14%
OpenAI
13%
フリーポート・マクモラン
11%
SpaceX
10%
イーライリリー
9%
ボーイング
7%
Anthropic
7%
パランティア
6%
ファイザー
4%
TikTok US / Bytedance
4%
サムスン電子
3%
$184,261 Vol.
グローバルファウンドリーズ
$8,943 Vol.
99%
Rigetti
$26,766 Vol.
97%
D-Wave
$5,230 Vol.
97%
Unusual Machines
$211 Vol.
33%
TSMC
$15,451 Vol.
18%
ロッキード・マーチン
$2,589 Vol.
15%
マイクロン
$1,954 Vol.
19%
IonQ
$2,687 Vol.
14%
エヌビディア
$16,013 Vol.
14%
Anduril
$43,435 Vol.
14%
OpenAI
$10,795 Vol.
13%
フリーポート・マクモラン
$3,286 Vol.
11%
SpaceX
$58 Vol.
10%
イーライリリー
$3,115 Vol.
9%
ボーイング
$9,972 Vol.
7%
Anthropic
$6,531 Vol.
7%
パランティア
$4,103 Vol.
6%
ファイザー
$6,364 Vol.
4%
TikTok US / Bytedance
$6,412 Vol.
4%
サムスン電子
$10,347 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify.
An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g., a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify.
An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements that do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration's expansion of industrial policy since early 2025 has driven trader sentiment, converting CHIPS Act grants, Defense Production Act funds, and other authorities into minority equity stakes across semiconductors, quantum computing, critical minerals, and defense technologies. The August 2025 conversion of roughly $8.9 billion into a nearly 10% Intel position established the model, followed by commitments to MP Materials and letters of intent for multiple quantum firms including IBM, GlobalFoundries, Rigetti, and D-Wave. Commerce Department leadership of these transactions, aimed at reshoring supply chains and countering foreign dependencies, explains elevated probabilities for additional semiconductor and quantum outcomes by the December 31, 2026 resolution date. Further announcements tied to existing programs or new appropriations could shift odds for listed companies before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify.
An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify.
An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Feb 3, 2026, 10:38 AM ET
音量
$184,261終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 3, 2026, 10:38 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify.
An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g., a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify.
An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements that do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.The Trump administration's expansion of industrial policy since early 2025 has driven trader sentiment, converting CHIPS Act grants, Defense Production Act funds, and other authorities into minority equity stakes across semiconductors, quantum computing, critical minerals, and defense technologies. The August 2025 conversion of roughly $8.9 billion into a nearly 10% Intel position established the model, followed by commitments to MP Materials and letters of intent for multiple quantum firms including IBM, GlobalFoundries, Rigetti, and D-Wave. Commerce Department leadership of these transactions, aimed at reshoring supply chains and countering foreign dependencies, explains elevated probabilities for additional semiconductor and quantum outcomes by the December 31, 2026 resolution date. Further announcements tied to existing programs or new appropriations could shift odds for listed companies before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify.
An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify.
An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$184,261終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 3, 2026, 10:38 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration's expansion of industrial policy since early 2025 has driven trader sentiment, converting CHIPS Act grants, Defense Production Act funds, and other authorities into minority equity stakes across semiconductors, quantum computing, critical minerals, and defense technologies. The August 2025 conversion of roughly $8.9 billion into a nearly 10% Intel position established the model, followed by commitments to MP Materials and letters of intent for multiple quantum firms including IBM, GlobalFoundries, Rigetti, and D-Wave. Commerce Department leadership of these transactions, aimed at reshoring supply chains and countering foreign dependencies, explains elevated probabilities for additional semiconductor and quantum outcomes by the December 31, 2026 resolution date. Further announcements tied to existing programs or new appropriations could shift odds for listed companies before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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