Recent polling averages project a fragmented 26th Knesset, with Netanyahu-aligned parties near 50–55 seats and the main opposition bloc at 52–55, leaving neither side at the 61-seat majority threshold and elevating the role of smaller lists and Arab parties in coalition arithmetic. The September 8 candidate submissions, including mergers such as Religious Zionism–Zehut and surplus-vote agreements among major blocs, have stabilized larger lists while leaving several parties hovering near the 3.25% electoral threshold. Petitions challenging Ra’am and the Joint List’s eligibility, now before the Central Elections Committee and Supreme Court, represent the most immediate variable that could alter seat projections. Voter turnout patterns, particularly in Arab and Haredi sectors, and final-week campaign developments will determine which marginal lists secure representation on October 27.