Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature on May 7, 2026, at exactly 25°C, driven by official China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observations showing the daily maximum peaked at 25°C during mid-afternoon under clear skies and northwest winds that capped warming. Current readings hover at 24°C late in the day, with declining solar angles and light breezes limiting further rises, aligning with World Meteorological Centre Beijing and AccuWeather model consensus forecasts. Realistic challenges include a late-evening station revision uncovering a 26°C outlier or prolonged clear conditions enabling a minor rebound, though sunset and stable atmospheric conditions make this unlikely as CMA finalizes reports.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Beijing on May 7?
Highest temperature in Beijing on May 7?
25°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$124,103 Vol.
$124,103 Vol.
2026/05/07
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$124,103 Vol.
$124,103 Vol.
2026/05/07
20°C or below
$4,822 Vol.
No
21°C
$5,492 Vol.
No
22°C
$14,978 Vol.
No
23°C
$12,854 Vol.
No
24°C
$17,921 Vol.
No
25°C
$22,167 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$19,803 Vol.
No
27°C
$12,165 Vol.
No
28°C
$7,443 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,524 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$2,935 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature on May 7, 2026, at exactly 25°C, driven by official China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observations showing the daily maximum peaked at 25°C during mid-afternoon under clear skies and northwest winds that capped warming. Current readings hover at 24°C late in the day, with declining solar angles and light breezes limiting further rises, aligning with World Meteorological Centre Beijing and AccuWeather model consensus forecasts. Realistic challenges include a late-evening station revision uncovering a 26°C outlier or prolonged clear conditions enabling a minor rebound, though sunset and stable atmospheric conditions make this unlikely as CMA finalizes reports.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： May 5, 2026, 12:42 AM ET
音量
$124,103終了日
2026/05/07マーケット開始日
May 5, 2026, 12:42 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature on May 7, 2026, at exactly 25°C, driven by official China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observations showing the daily maximum peaked at 25°C during mid-afternoon under clear skies and northwest winds that capped warming. Current readings hover at 24°C late in the day, with declining solar angles and light breezes limiting further rises, aligning with World Meteorological Centre Beijing and AccuWeather model consensus forecasts. Realistic challenges include a late-evening station revision uncovering a 26°C outlier or prolonged clear conditions enabling a minor rebound, though sunset and stable atmospheric conditions make this unlikely as CMA finalizes reports.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$124,103終了日
2026/05/07マーケット開始日
May 5, 2026, 12:42 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Beijing's highest temperature on May 7, 2026, at exactly 25°C, driven by official China Meteorological Administration (CMA) observations showing the daily maximum peaked at 25°C during mid-afternoon under clear skies and northwest winds that capped warming. Current readings hover at 24°C late in the day, with declining solar angles and light breezes limiting further rises, aligning with World Meteorological Centre Beijing and AccuWeather model consensus forecasts. Realistic challenges include a late-evening station revision uncovering a 26°C outlier or prolonged clear conditions enabling a minor rebound, though sunset and stable atmospheric conditions make this unlikely as CMA finalizes reports.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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