Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a 14°C high in Istanbul on April 19 at 32% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 13°C at 22.5%, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peak afternoon temperatures in that range amid a cool northerly airflow over the Marmara region. Recent showers through April 16-17 have reinforced a stable boundary layer with partly cloudy conditions and sea breezes capping daytime heating, diverging from the mid-April climatological average of 16°C. Key differentiators include model spread on cloud timing and low-level mixing—thinner clouds could nudge toward 15°C, while thicker overcast favors 13°C or below. New 00z/12z runs from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global models will provide updated guidance within hours, potentially shifting odds as resolution nears.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 19?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on April 19?
14°C 31%
13°C 23%
16°C 17%
15°C 14%
新規
新規
2026/04/19
9°C or below
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
9%
13°C
23%
14°C
31%
15°C
14%
16°C
12%
17°C
10%
18°C
7%
19°C or higher
2%
14°C 31%
13°C 23%
16°C 17%
15°C 14%
新規
新規
2026/04/19
9°C or below
$252 Vol.
1%
10°C
$163 Vol.
1%
11°C
$203 Vol.
1%
12°C
$138 Vol.
9%
13°C
$0 Vol.
23%
14°C
$6 Vol.
31%
15°C
$25 Vol.
14%
16°C
$8 Vol.
12%
17°C
$0 Vol.
10%
18°C
$10 Vol.
7%
19°C or higher
$85 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a 14°C high in Istanbul on April 19 at 32% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 13°C at 22.5%, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peak afternoon temperatures in that range amid a cool northerly airflow over the Marmara region. Recent showers through April 16-17 have reinforced a stable boundary layer with partly cloudy conditions and sea breezes capping daytime heating, diverging from the mid-April climatological average of 16°C. Key differentiators include model spread on cloud timing and low-level mixing—thinner clouds could nudge toward 15°C, while thicker overcast favors 13°C or below. New 00z/12z runs from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global models will provide updated guidance within hours, potentially shifting odds as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 17, 2026, 12:37 AM ET
音量
$890終了日
2026/04/19マーケット開始日
Apr 17, 2026, 12:37 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a 14°C high in Istanbul on April 19 at 32% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 13°C at 22.5%, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peak afternoon temperatures in that range amid a cool northerly airflow over the Marmara region. Recent showers through April 16-17 have reinforced a stable boundary layer with partly cloudy conditions and sea breezes capping daytime heating, diverging from the mid-April climatological average of 16°C. Key differentiators include model spread on cloud timing and low-level mixing—thinner clouds could nudge toward 15°C, while thicker overcast favors 13°C or below. New 00z/12z runs from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global models will provide updated guidance within hours, potentially shifting odds as resolution nears.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$890終了日
2026/04/19マーケット開始日
Apr 17, 2026, 12:37 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward a 14°C high in Istanbul on April 19 at 32% implied probability, narrowly ahead of 13°C at 22.5%, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts projecting peak afternoon temperatures in that range amid a cool northerly airflow over the Marmara region. Recent showers through April 16-17 have reinforced a stable boundary layer with partly cloudy conditions and sea breezes capping daytime heating, diverging from the mid-April climatological average of 16°C. Key differentiators include model spread on cloud timing and low-level mixing—thinner clouds could nudge toward 15°C, while thicker overcast favors 13°C or below. New 00z/12z runs from the Turkish State Meteorological Service and global models will provide updated guidance within hours, potentially shifting odds as resolution nears.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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