Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and timeanddate models indicate a maximum temperature of 28–29°C on July 17 as the most probable outcome, driven by stable high-pressure systems, moderate northerly winds, and typical mid-July atmospheric patterns that limit extreme heating. These align with Istanbul’s climatological July average high of 28–29°C while accounting for urban heat island effects and low precipitation chances. Model consensus shows limited spread, with some runs suggesting brief warming to 30–31°C if winds shift, though current guidance favors the lower end. Updated ECMWF and local Turkish Meteorological Service runs over the next 24–48 hours represent the key data points that could refine these market-implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7月17日のイスタンブールの最高気温は？
7月17日のイスタンブールの最高気温は？
28°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$41,768 Vol.
$41,768 Vol.
2026/07/17
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33℃
いいえ
34°C以上
いいえ
28°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$41,768 Vol.
$41,768 Vol.
2026/07/17
24°C or below
$550 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,066 Vol.
No
26°C
$2,377 Vol.
No
27°C
$3,965 Vol.
No
28°C
$10,686 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$11,975 Vol.
No
30°C
$3,834 Vol.
No
31°C
$4,349 Vol.
No
32°C
$1,014 Vol.
No
33℃
$1,604 Vol.
いいえ
34°C以上
$347 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and timeanddate models indicate a maximum temperature of 28–29°C on July 17 as the most probable outcome, driven by stable high-pressure systems, moderate northerly winds, and typical mid-July atmospheric patterns that limit extreme heating. These align with Istanbul’s climatological July average high of 28–29°C while accounting for urban heat island effects and low precipitation chances. Model consensus shows limited spread, with some runs suggesting brief warming to 30–31°C if winds shift, though current guidance favors the lower end. Updated ECMWF and local Turkish Meteorological Service runs over the next 24–48 hours represent the key data points that could refine these market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
音量
$41,768終了日
2026/07/17マーケット開始日
Jul 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and timeanddate models indicate a maximum temperature of 28–29°C on July 17 as the most probable outcome, driven by stable high-pressure systems, moderate northerly winds, and typical mid-July atmospheric patterns that limit extreme heating. These align with Istanbul’s climatological July average high of 28–29°C while accounting for urban heat island effects and low precipitation chances. Model consensus shows limited spread, with some runs suggesting brief warming to 30–31°C if winds shift, though current guidance favors the lower end. Updated ECMWF and local Turkish Meteorological Service runs over the next 24–48 hours represent the key data points that could refine these market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$41,768終了日
2026/07/17マーケット開始日
Jul 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Recent ensemble forecasts from agencies like the Met Office and timeanddate models indicate a maximum temperature of 28–29°C on July 17 as the most probable outcome, driven by stable high-pressure systems, moderate northerly winds, and typical mid-July atmospheric patterns that limit extreme heating. These align with Istanbul’s climatological July average high of 28–29°C while accounting for urban heat island effects and low precipitation chances. Model consensus shows limited spread, with some runs suggesting brief warming to 30–31°C if winds shift, though current guidance favors the lower end. Updated ECMWF and local Turkish Meteorological Service runs over the next 24–48 hours represent the key data points that could refine these market-implied probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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