Recent ensemble forecasts from major models, including GFS and ECMWF, converge on a daily maximum near 26–28°C for Istanbul on July 5, 2026, driven by persistent high pressure, light northerly flow off the Black Sea, and mostly clear skies that moderate daytime heating. These conditions match typical early-July climatology, where average highs reach 27–28°C with low precipitation risk and limited warm advection. Slight model spread around this range, plus minor uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover, supports the market-implied concentration on 26°C (40.5%) and adjacent outcomes at 25–27°C. Updated runs over the next 48 hours, along with any shifts in regional pressure gradients, remain the key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7月5日のイスタンブールの最高気温は？
7月5日のイスタンブールの最高気温は？
27°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$68,617 Vol.
$68,617 Vol.
2026/07/05
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$68,617 Vol.
$68,617 Vol.
2026/07/05
23°C or below
$4,318 Vol.
No
24°C
$3,898 Vol.
No
25°C
$15,807 Vol.
No
26°C
$13,329 Vol.
No
27°C
$11,442 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$4,286 Vol.
No
29°C
$4,179 Vol.
No
30°C
$3,859 Vol.
No
31°C
$2,586 Vol.
No
32°C
$2,433 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$2,478 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major models, including GFS and ECMWF, converge on a daily maximum near 26–28°C for Istanbul on July 5, 2026, driven by persistent high pressure, light northerly flow off the Black Sea, and mostly clear skies that moderate daytime heating. These conditions match typical early-July climatology, where average highs reach 27–28°C with low precipitation risk and limited warm advection. Slight model spread around this range, plus minor uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover, supports the market-implied concentration on 26°C (40.5%) and adjacent outcomes at 25–27°C. Updated runs over the next 48 hours, along with any shifts in regional pressure gradients, remain the key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
音量
$68,617終了日
2026/07/05マーケット開始日
Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major models, including GFS and ECMWF, converge on a daily maximum near 26–28°C for Istanbul on July 5, 2026, driven by persistent high pressure, light northerly flow off the Black Sea, and mostly clear skies that moderate daytime heating. These conditions match typical early-July climatology, where average highs reach 27–28°C with low precipitation risk and limited warm advection. Slight model spread around this range, plus minor uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover, supports the market-implied concentration on 26°C (40.5%) and adjacent outcomes at 25–27°C. Updated runs over the next 48 hours, along with any shifts in regional pressure gradients, remain the key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$68,617終了日
2026/07/05マーケット開始日
Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Recent ensemble forecasts from major models, including GFS and ECMWF, converge on a daily maximum near 26–28°C for Istanbul on July 5, 2026, driven by persistent high pressure, light northerly flow off the Black Sea, and mostly clear skies that moderate daytime heating. These conditions match typical early-July climatology, where average highs reach 27–28°C with low precipitation risk and limited warm advection. Slight model spread around this range, plus minor uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover, supports the market-implied concentration on 26°C (40.5%) and adjacent outcomes at 25–27°C. Updated runs over the next 48 hours, along with any shifts in regional pressure gradients, remain the key near-term catalysts that could adjust these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問