Recent forecasts from models like those referenced by BBC Weather and timeanddate project a maximum near 39°C for Jeddah on July 18, aligning with the market's tight clustering around 37–39°C outcomes. Jeddah's Red Sea coastal setting typically caps July highs through sea-breeze moderation and high humidity, with climatological averages of 37°C; subtle day-to-day variations in wind speed, cloud cover, or sea-surface temperature anomalies can shift the peak by 1–2°C. Traders weigh these factors against historical July extremes rarely exceeding 40°C, creating balanced probabilities across the central range while discounting lower or much higher thresholds absent major atmospheric shifts before resolution.