**Monsoon-season dynamics and short-range variability primarily shape trader positioning for Seoul’s July 19 high temperature.** Persistent Changma front activity brings high humidity (often 80–90 %), frequent cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime solar heating and cap peak readings, favoring the closely clustered 27–28 °C outcomes (combined >50 % implied probability). Recent July settlements under similar conditions—28 °C on July 15 and 27 °C on July 9—illustrate how rain and moisture consistently suppress maxima below drier-scenario levels. Model consensus points to modest day-to-day fluctuations driven by the exact timing and intensity of any showers or breaks in cloud cover, which can shift the daily maximum by 1–3 °C. Official guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global ensembles shows typical mid-July highs near 28–30 °C, with the upper tail (30 °C or 31 °C+) requiring clearer skies and stronger subsidence, while cooler outcomes (≤26 °C) would need heavier or more prolonged precipitation. With resolution only two days away, traders closely monitor the latest KMA updates and mesoscale model runs for any shifts in the monsoon boundary or rainfall timing that would tip the balance among the tightly bunched leading contracts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7月19日のソウルの最高気温は？
7月19日のソウルの最高気温は？
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$255,922 Vol.
$255,922 Vol.
2026/07/19
21°C or below
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
23°C <1%
$255,922 Vol.
$255,922 Vol.
2026/07/19
21°C or below
$503 Vol.
No
22°C
$375 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,067 Vol.
No
24°C
$11,808 Vol.
No
25°C
$12,898 Vol.
No
26°C
$96,870 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$42,456 Vol.
No
28°C
$12,734 Vol.
No
29°C
$16,540 Vol.
No
30°C
$20,671 Vol.
No
31°C or higher
$40,000 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Monsoon-season dynamics and short-range variability primarily shape trader positioning for Seoul’s July 19 high temperature.** Persistent Changma front activity brings high humidity (often 80–90 %), frequent cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime solar heating and cap peak readings, favoring the closely clustered 27–28 °C outcomes (combined >50 % implied probability). Recent July settlements under similar conditions—28 °C on July 15 and 27 °C on July 9—illustrate how rain and moisture consistently suppress maxima below drier-scenario levels.
Model consensus points to modest day-to-day fluctuations driven by the exact timing and intensity of any showers or breaks in cloud cover, which can shift the daily maximum by 1–3 °C. Official guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global ensembles shows typical mid-July highs near 28–30 °C, with the upper tail (30 °C or 31 °C+) requiring clearer skies and stronger subsidence, while cooler outcomes (≤26 °C) would need heavier or more prolonged precipitation. With resolution only two days away, traders closely monitor the latest KMA updates and mesoscale model runs for any shifts in the monsoon boundary or rainfall timing that would tip the balance among the tightly bunched leading contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
音量
$255,922終了日
2026/07/19マーケット開始日
Jul 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Monsoon-season dynamics and short-range variability primarily shape trader positioning for Seoul’s July 19 high temperature.** Persistent Changma front activity brings high humidity (often 80–90 %), frequent cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime solar heating and cap peak readings, favoring the closely clustered 27–28 °C outcomes (combined >50 % implied probability). Recent July settlements under similar conditions—28 °C on July 15 and 27 °C on July 9—illustrate how rain and moisture consistently suppress maxima below drier-scenario levels.
Model consensus points to modest day-to-day fluctuations driven by the exact timing and intensity of any showers or breaks in cloud cover, which can shift the daily maximum by 1–3 °C. Official guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global ensembles shows typical mid-July highs near 28–30 °C, with the upper tail (30 °C or 31 °C+) requiring clearer skies and stronger subsidence, while cooler outcomes (≤26 °C) would need heavier or more prolonged precipitation. With resolution only two days away, traders closely monitor the latest KMA updates and mesoscale model runs for any shifts in the monsoon boundary or rainfall timing that would tip the balance among the tightly bunched leading contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$255,922終了日
2026/07/19マーケット開始日
Jul 17, 2026, 12:02 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
**Monsoon-season dynamics and short-range variability primarily shape trader positioning for Seoul’s July 19 high temperature.** Persistent Changma front activity brings high humidity (often 80–90 %), frequent cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime solar heating and cap peak readings, favoring the closely clustered 27–28 °C outcomes (combined >50 % implied probability). Recent July settlements under similar conditions—28 °C on July 15 and 27 °C on July 9—illustrate how rain and moisture consistently suppress maxima below drier-scenario levels. Model consensus points to modest day-to-day fluctuations driven by the exact timing and intensity of any showers or breaks in cloud cover, which can shift the daily maximum by 1–3 °C. Official guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global ensembles shows typical mid-July highs near 28–30 °C, with the upper tail (30 °C or 31 °C+) requiring clearer skies and stronger subsidence, while cooler outcomes (≤26 °C) would need heavier or more prolonged precipitation. With resolution only two days away, traders closely monitor the latest KMA updates and mesoscale model runs for any shifts in the monsoon boundary or rainfall timing that would tip the balance among the tightly bunched leading contracts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問