Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 33°C or below in Lucknow on March 25 at 43% implied probability, driven by the India Meteorological Department's latest forecast projecting a daytime maximum around 32-34°C under partly cloudy skies with moderate northeasterly winds. This aligns with late March climatology for the Gangetic Plains, where historical averages range 31-35°C amid transitioning pre-monsoon conditions, but recent observations—daytime highs of 29-32°C over the past week—signal subdued warming due to residual cool air masses and no heat dome setup. Lower odds for 36-37°C (17-15.5%) reflect model consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles, while extreme 40°C+ outcomes (<10%) lack support from absent anticyclonic ridging or dry föhn effects per IMD monitoring.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3月25日のラクナウの最高気温は?
3月25日のラクナウの最高気温は?
33℃以下 50%
36°C 18%
34℃ 17%
37℃ 16%
33℃以下
44%
34℃
17%
35°C
12%
36°C
18%
37℃
16%
38°C
1%
39℃
1%
40°C
6%
41℃
7%
42°C
1%
43°C以上
1%
33℃以下 50%
36°C 18%
34℃ 17%
37℃ 16%
33℃以下
44%
34℃
17%
35°C
12%
36°C
18%
37℃
16%
38°C
1%
39℃
1%
40°C
6%
41℃
7%
42°C
1%
43°C以上
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 33°C or below in Lucknow on March 25 at 43% implied probability, driven by the India Meteorological Department's latest forecast projecting a daytime maximum around 32-34°C under partly cloudy skies with moderate northeasterly winds. This aligns with late March climatology for the Gangetic Plains, where historical averages range 31-35°C amid transitioning pre-monsoon conditions, but recent observations—daytime highs of 29-32°C over the past week—signal subdued warming due to residual cool air masses and no heat dome setup. Lower odds for 36-37°C (17-15.5%) reflect model consensus from GFS and ECMWF ensembles, while extreme 40°C+ outcomes (<10%) lack support from absent anticyclonic ridging or dry föhn effects per IMD monitoring.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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