Trader consensus favors a maximum temperature of 30°C or below in Lucknow on March 22 at 50% implied probability, driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts predicting mild conditions around 29-31°C amid a lingering western disturbance bringing cooler northerly winds and cloudy skies. Historical March averages hover near 32°C, but recent observations show daytime highs dipping to 28-30°C over the past week due to low-level moisture and frontal activity suppressing heat buildup. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF align on stable, below-normal temps with minimal divergence, though traders watch for any rapid clearing that could nudge odds toward 31-32°C (combined ~35%); upcoming IMD bulletins by evening could refine these market-implied odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 22?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 22?
30°C or below 50%
31°C 26%
32°C 9%
34°C 4.2%
$18,913 Vol.
$18,913 Vol.
30°C or below
50%
31°C
26%
32°C
9%
33°C
8%
34°C
4%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
1%
40°C or higher
1%
30°C or below 50%
31°C 26%
32°C 9%
34°C 4.2%
$18,913 Vol.
$18,913 Vol.
30°C or below
50%
31°C
26%
32°C
9%
33°C
8%
34°C
4%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
1%
40°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a maximum temperature of 30°C or below in Lucknow on March 22 at 50% implied probability, driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts predicting mild conditions around 29-31°C amid a lingering western disturbance bringing cooler northerly winds and cloudy skies. Historical March averages hover near 32°C, but recent observations show daytime highs dipping to 28-30°C over the past week due to low-level moisture and frontal activity suppressing heat buildup. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF align on stable, below-normal temps with minimal divergence, though traders watch for any rapid clearing that could nudge odds toward 31-32°C (combined ~35%); upcoming IMD bulletins by evening could refine these market-implied odds.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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