Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance for Madrid on July 21 centers on a maximum near 38°C under stable high pressure, with limited Saharan advection compared to June’s record warmth. This consensus, supported by consistent 36–40°C ranges across deterministic runs, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 38°C and 39°C outcomes. Day-to-day variability in steering flow and boundary-layer mixing keeps 37°C and 40°C viable, while probabilities drop sharply outside that band given the short-range forecast skill and absence of extreme heat-dome signals in the latest updates. Traders are thus pricing the most probable range consistent with official guidance rather than historical July averages near 32°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7月21日のマドリードの最高気温は?
37℃ 73%
38℃ 28%
36°C 2.8%
39°C <1%
$98,515 Vol.
$98,515 Vol.
34℃以下
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
3%
37℃
73%
38℃
28%
39°C
1%
40℃
<1%
41℃
<1%
42℃
<1%
43°C
<1%
44℃以上
<1%
37℃ 73%
38℃ 28%
36°C 2.8%
39°C <1%
$98,515 Vol.
$98,515 Vol.
34℃以下
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
3%
37℃
73%
38℃
28%
39°C
1%
40℃
<1%
41℃
<1%
42℃
<1%
43°C
<1%
44℃以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Jul 19, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent AEMET and ensemble model guidance for Madrid on July 21 centers on a maximum near 38°C under stable high pressure, with limited Saharan advection compared to June’s record warmth. This consensus, supported by consistent 36–40°C ranges across deterministic runs, underpins the market’s heavy weighting toward 38°C and 39°C outcomes. Day-to-day variability in steering flow and boundary-layer mixing keeps 37°C and 40°C viable, while probabilities drop sharply outside that band given the short-range forecast skill and absence of extreme heat-dome signals in the latest updates. Traders are thus pricing the most probable range consistent with official guidance rather than historical July averages near 32°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日

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