Forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 20–23°C for Moscow’s July 23 daily maximum. Ensemble spreads show modest variability in daytime heating tied to subtle differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and weak cold-air advection ahead of a passing trough. Historical July climatology places the long-term average high near 23°C, yet current guidance from multiple centers indicates slightly suppressed values around 20–22°C due to increased cloudiness and lighter winds. Resolution hinges on the official Moscow station reading, where even a 1°C shift from model bias or local microclimate effects can separate the leading outcomes. Updated runs ahead of the 48-hour window will likely tighten or shift these probabilities as new observational data arrives.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7月23日のモスクワの最高気温は？
7月23日のモスクワの最高気温は？
22°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$31,733 Vol.
$31,733 Vol.
2026/07/23
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28℃以上
いいえ
22°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$31,733 Vol.
$31,733 Vol.
2026/07/23
18°C or below
$3,118 Vol.
No
19°C
$3,813 Vol.
No
20°C
$3,770 Vol.
No
21°C
$7,219 Vol.
No
22°C
$6,357 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$2,718 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,164 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,286 Vol.
No
26°C
$499 Vol.
No
27°C
$513 Vol.
No
28℃以上
$275 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 20–23°C for Moscow’s July 23 daily maximum. Ensemble spreads show modest variability in daytime heating tied to subtle differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and weak cold-air advection ahead of a passing trough. Historical July climatology places the long-term average high near 23°C, yet current guidance from multiple centers indicates slightly suppressed values around 20–22°C due to increased cloudiness and lighter winds. Resolution hinges on the official Moscow station reading, where even a 1°C shift from model bias or local microclimate effects can separate the leading outcomes. Updated runs ahead of the 48-hour window will likely tighten or shift these probabilities as new observational data arrives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 21, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
音量
$31,733終了日
2026/07/23マーケット開始日
Jul 21, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 20–23°C for Moscow’s July 23 daily maximum. Ensemble spreads show modest variability in daytime heating tied to subtle differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and weak cold-air advection ahead of a passing trough. Historical July climatology places the long-term average high near 23°C, yet current guidance from multiple centers indicates slightly suppressed values around 20–22°C due to increased cloudiness and lighter winds. Resolution hinges on the official Moscow station reading, where even a 1°C shift from model bias or local microclimate effects can separate the leading outcomes. Updated runs ahead of the 48-hour window will likely tighten or shift these probabilities as new observational data arrives.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$31,733終了日
2026/07/23マーケット開始日
Jul 21, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models is the main driver behind the tight clustering of trader probabilities around 20–23°C for Moscow’s July 23 daily maximum. Ensemble spreads show modest variability in daytime heating tied to subtle differences in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and weak cold-air advection ahead of a passing trough. Historical July climatology places the long-term average high near 23°C, yet current guidance from multiple centers indicates slightly suppressed values around 20–22°C due to increased cloudiness and lighter winds. Resolution hinges on the official Moscow station reading, where even a 1°C shift from model bias or local microclimate effects can separate the leading outcomes. Updated runs ahead of the 48-hour window will likely tighten or shift these probabilities as new observational data arrives.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問