Recent European model runs, including ECMWF ensembles, indicate Munich will experience peak temperatures of 31–33°C on June 22 under building high pressure and southerly flow ahead of a weak front, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those thresholds. Ensemble spreads and local factors such as afternoon convective cloud development or timing of any showers introduce realistic uncertainty that could cap readings near 31°C or allow brief clearing to push toward 34°C. With the summer solstice approaching and recent Central European warmth providing a warm baseline, forecasters emphasize that small shifts in boundary-layer moisture or insolation will determine the exact daily maximum recorded at official stations. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range further.