Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, indicate a high of approximately 32°C for Warsaw on July 1 under a ridge of high pressure promoting warm advection and clear skies, consistent with the market's heaviest weighting on 30–32°C outcomes. Recent model runs show limited spread around this value, with minimal precipitation expected to suppress daytime maxima, though minor shifts in timing or cloud cover could adjust results by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C highlight the anomalous warmth, while official monitoring from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management will provide final verification against resolution thresholds. Traders are incorporating the proximity to the event and typical short-range forecast skill, leaving room for late adjustments from updated runs.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7月1日のワルシャワの最高気温は？
7月1日のワルシャワの最高気温は？
33°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$102,340 Vol.
$102,340 Vol.
2026/07/01
30°C or below
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
Yes
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C or higher
No
33°C 100.0%
30°C or below <1%
31°C <1%
32°C <1%
$102,340 Vol.
$102,340 Vol.
2026/07/01
30°C or below
$16,705 Vol.
No
31°C
$13,914 Vol.
No
32°C
$17,608 Vol.
No
33°C
$15,610 Vol.
Yes
34°C
$14,595 Vol.
No
35°C
$10,749 Vol.
No
36°C
$5,579 Vol.
No
37°C
$3,571 Vol.
No
38°C
$2,574 Vol.
No
39°C
$668 Vol.
No
40°C or higher
$768 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, indicate a high of approximately 32°C for Warsaw on July 1 under a ridge of high pressure promoting warm advection and clear skies, consistent with the market's heaviest weighting on 30–32°C outcomes. Recent model runs show limited spread around this value, with minimal precipitation expected to suppress daytime maxima, though minor shifts in timing or cloud cover could adjust results by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C highlight the anomalous warmth, while official monitoring from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management will provide final verification against resolution thresholds. Traders are incorporating the proximity to the event and typical short-range forecast skill, leaving room for late adjustments from updated runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
音量
$102,340終了日
2026/07/01マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, indicate a high of approximately 32°C for Warsaw on July 1 under a ridge of high pressure promoting warm advection and clear skies, consistent with the market's heaviest weighting on 30–32°C outcomes. Recent model runs show limited spread around this value, with minimal precipitation expected to suppress daytime maxima, though minor shifts in timing or cloud cover could adjust results by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C highlight the anomalous warmth, while official monitoring from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management will provide final verification against resolution thresholds. Traders are incorporating the proximity to the event and typical short-range forecast skill, leaving room for late adjustments from updated runs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$102,340終了日
2026/07/01マーケット開始日
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
Current numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF ensembles, indicate a high of approximately 32°C for Warsaw on July 1 under a ridge of high pressure promoting warm advection and clear skies, consistent with the market's heaviest weighting on 30–32°C outcomes. Recent model runs show limited spread around this value, with minimal precipitation expected to suppress daytime maxima, though minor shifts in timing or cloud cover could adjust results by 1–2°C. Historical July averages near 24–25°C highlight the anomalous warmth, while official monitoring from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management will provide final verification against resolution thresholds. Traders are incorporating the proximity to the event and typical short-range forecast skill, leaving room for late adjustments from updated runs.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問