Recent model consensus from Météo-France and European ensembles shows a moderating high-pressure ridge over northern France, with southwesterly flow advecting milder maritime air toward Paris by July 18. This setup favors afternoon maxima near 27–29 °C at standard observing sites, tempered by possible increased cloud cover and a slight uptick in boundary-layer mixing. Urban heat-island effects could add 1–2 °C locally, yet forecast spread arises mainly from subtle differences in timing of any weak frontal passage and insolation duration. Traders therefore cluster probabilities around the 28 °C and 29 °C bins, reflecting the narrow range between official guidance and ensemble variability two days ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7月18日のパリの最高気温は?
29°C 60%
30°C 22%
28°C 16%
31℃ 5%
$67,102 Vol.
$67,102 Vol.
24℃以下
<1%
25°C
<1%
26℃
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
16%
29°C
60%
30°C
22%
31℃
5%
32°C
<1%
33℃
<1%
34°C以上
<1%
29°C 60%
30°C 22%
28°C 16%
31℃ 5%
$67,102 Vol.
$67,102 Vol.
24℃以下
<1%
25°C
<1%
26℃
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
16%
29°C
60%
30°C
22%
31℃
5%
32°C
<1%
33℃
<1%
34°C以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Jul 16, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent model consensus from Météo-France and European ensembles shows a moderating high-pressure ridge over northern France, with southwesterly flow advecting milder maritime air toward Paris by July 18. This setup favors afternoon maxima near 27–29 °C at standard observing sites, tempered by possible increased cloud cover and a slight uptick in boundary-layer mixing. Urban heat-island effects could add 1–2 °C locally, yet forecast spread arises mainly from subtle differences in timing of any weak frontal passage and insolation duration. Traders therefore cluster probabilities around the 28 °C and 29 °C bins, reflecting the narrow range between official guidance and ensemble variability two days ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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