**Recent official forecasts position 14°C as the most probable daily maximum for Wellington on July 18, aligning with the market's leading 50.5% implied probability.** July marks mid-winter in the Southern Hemisphere, when Wellington's temperate maritime climate typically delivers average daily highs of 12–14°C, driven by prevailing westerly winds, frequent cloud cover, and limited solar heating. NIWA's May–July 2026 seasonal outlook indicates temperatures are about equally likely to finish near or below average across the region, with occasional cold snaps possible under high pressure. Current short-range guidance from sources such as the Met Office and local models points to a stable 14°C high on the 18th, with light northerly flow potentially allowing a modest 15°C reading if mixing is stronger than expected. Model consensus shows low variability, supporting the combined 84% probability on 14–15°C outcomes while keeping higher or lower extremes below 10% combined. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic runs and climatological baselines, which favor these narrow thresholds ahead of any final pre-event model updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日7月18日のウェリントンの最高気温は？
7月18日のウェリントンの最高気温は？
15°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$100,831 Vol.
$100,831 Vol.
2026/07/18
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
Yes
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C以上
いいえ
15°C 100.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
10°C <1%
$100,831 Vol.
$100,831 Vol.
2026/07/18
8°C or below
$401 Vol.
No
9°C
$401 Vol.
No
10°C
$2,512 Vol.
No
11°C
$366 Vol.
No
12°C
$4,282 Vol.
No
13°C
$15,916 Vol.
No
14°C
$34,036 Vol.
No
15°C
$24,107 Vol.
Yes
16°C
$10,580 Vol.
No
17°C
$6,989 Vol.
No
18°C以上
$1,240 Vol.
いいえ
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts position 14°C as the most probable daily maximum for Wellington on July 18, aligning with the market's leading 50.5% implied probability.** July marks mid-winter in the Southern Hemisphere, when Wellington's temperate maritime climate typically delivers average daily highs of 12–14°C, driven by prevailing westerly winds, frequent cloud cover, and limited solar heating. NIWA's May–July 2026 seasonal outlook indicates temperatures are about equally likely to finish near or below average across the region, with occasional cold snaps possible under high pressure. Current short-range guidance from sources such as the Met Office and local models points to a stable 14°C high on the 18th, with light northerly flow potentially allowing a modest 15°C reading if mixing is stronger than expected. Model consensus shows low variability, supporting the combined 84% probability on 14–15°C outcomes while keeping higher or lower extremes below 10% combined. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic runs and climatological baselines, which favor these narrow thresholds ahead of any final pre-event model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
音量
$100,831終了日
2026/07/18マーケット開始日
Jul 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent official forecasts position 14°C as the most probable daily maximum for Wellington on July 18, aligning with the market's leading 50.5% implied probability.** July marks mid-winter in the Southern Hemisphere, when Wellington's temperate maritime climate typically delivers average daily highs of 12–14°C, driven by prevailing westerly winds, frequent cloud cover, and limited solar heating. NIWA's May–July 2026 seasonal outlook indicates temperatures are about equally likely to finish near or below average across the region, with occasional cold snaps possible under high pressure. Current short-range guidance from sources such as the Met Office and local models points to a stable 14°C high on the 18th, with light northerly flow potentially allowing a modest 15°C reading if mixing is stronger than expected. Model consensus shows low variability, supporting the combined 84% probability on 14–15°C outcomes while keeping higher or lower extremes below 10% combined. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic runs and climatological baselines, which favor these narrow thresholds ahead of any final pre-event model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$100,831終了日
2026/07/18マーケット開始日
Jul 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET提案された結果: No
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: No
**Recent official forecasts position 14°C as the most probable daily maximum for Wellington on July 18, aligning with the market's leading 50.5% implied probability.** July marks mid-winter in the Southern Hemisphere, when Wellington's temperate maritime climate typically delivers average daily highs of 12–14°C, driven by prevailing westerly winds, frequent cloud cover, and limited solar heating. NIWA's May–July 2026 seasonal outlook indicates temperatures are about equally likely to finish near or below average across the region, with occasional cold snaps possible under high pressure. Current short-range guidance from sources such as the Met Office and local models points to a stable 14°C high on the 18th, with light northerly flow potentially allowing a modest 15°C reading if mixing is stronger than expected. Model consensus shows low variability, supporting the combined 84% probability on 14–15°C outcomes while keeping higher or lower extremes below 10% combined. Traders appear to be weighting the latest deterministic runs and climatological baselines, which favor these narrow thresholds ahead of any final pre-event model updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問